6 Fantasy Football WRs Whose Touchdowns Are Trending Up & Down

Jun 17, 2024

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

After tackling quarterbacks and running backs the last couple of weeks, I’ve returned to uncover outlier touchdown scorers at the wide receiver position and what we can expect from them in 2024. My methodology for pass-catchers can be found in the introduction to the RB piece, and the core thesis remains the same: players who over-performed or under-performed in the touchdown column last season should regress toward the mean this year. Knowing who those players are allows us to capitalize on under-the-radar value and avoid potential busts early in drafts.

More Positional TD Rate Trenders: QB | RB | TE

The touchdown rates for wide receivers are notably and unsurprisingly different from running backs, particularly in how likely they are to score from longer range.

WR TD Rates by Field Position, Last 10 Seasons
Line of Scrimmage	TD Rate, Targets
Opponent 1-5	43.5%
Opponent 6-10	29.4%
Opponent 11-19	15.0%
Opponent 20-29	7.8%
Opponent 30-39	4.0%
Opponent 40-49	2.8%
Own 1-50	0.9%
Red Zone (Inside 20)	25.3%
Total	4.8%

And of course, it’s worth noting that some players are simply outliers themselves — guys like Mike Evans and Tyreek Hill are strong examples (of a couple of different archetypes). When they outscore their expected touchdown totals, I’m less quick to predict a regression, because they’ve shown a consistent ability to defeat the math throughout their careers.

Most WR Receiving TD Over Expectation, Last 10 Seasons
Player	TD Over Expectation
Mike Evans	25.1
Tyreek Hill	23.5
Tyler Lockett	21.7
Antonio Brown	19.5

But most players are not future Hall of Famers. Most players are much more likely to fit into mathematical models, allowing us to confidently diagnose their shifting touchdown from 2023 to 2024. Let’s get into a few on each side of the coin.