Should You Draft Raheem Mostert in Fantasy Football in 2024?

In fantasy football, it is rare to come by a player coming off an RB1 season who is being drafted outside the top 24 at his position the following year. Yet, that seems to be the case with Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert, who is being taken as the RB28 and 96th overall according to Underdog ADP (RB26, 81st overall in our multi-site ADP tool). Here’s a look at whether Mostert is worth selecting at his current draft spot in fantasy football.

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2023 Season in Review

Mostert had the best season of his career in 2023. As the lead back for the Dolphins, he ran for over 1,000 yards and had a league-leading 21 total touchdowns en route to an overall RB2 finish. He was one of the biggest draft steals last season, vastly outperforming his ADP of RB40 and 115th overall. Mostert was also extremely consistent in 2023, with just two total games scoring less than double-digit fantasy points.

The most prominent question mark around Mostert for his entire career has been his health. He missed extended periods due to injury in 2018, 2020, and 2021, but has put together two straight healthy seasons since then. Although Mostert is entering his age-32 season, making him the oldest starting running back in the league, one important thing to keep in mind is that Mostert has not had a standard career path. He bounced around practice squads for his first few seasons and actually has fewer career carries than much younger players like Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, and Devin Singletary. So, while health will always be a cloud looming over Mostert, it is reassuring to know that his lack of mileage indicates he isn’t due for a significant drop-off in production just yet.

Mostert in the Dolphins Offense

I’ve buried the lead a little bit so far — the main reason for Mostert’s decline in ADP is the presumed ascension of second-year De'Von Achane into the starting role in Miami. Achane had one of the most unique rookie seasons I can imagine. He played more than 10% of offensive snaps in just eight games, but still managed to finish as the RB24. He ran for a preposterous 7.8 yards per carry and was the overall RB4 on a point-per-game basis right behind Mostert.

Considering how dynamic Achane was in his rookie year, it is natural to assume that he will step in as the full-time starter with a year under his belt. However, that doesn’t render Mostert irrelevant — standing at 5’’9, 188 pounds, Achane is far from the most durable player in the league. I can easily imagine the Dolphins trying not to force-feed Achane so that he stays as healthy and fast as possible, especially considering Achane saw a steep drop in production after coming back from injury last year.

Even if Achane stays healthy, I fully expect Mostert to stay involved in the rotation. The two were more than able to coexist last season: in the seven games where both of them played at least 30% of snaps, Achane was the overall RB2 and Mostert was the overall RB3. They each stay in the top 12 even if we throw away the Dolphins’ 70-point performance against the Broncos where Mostert and Achane scored four touchdowns apiece. All in all, I am confident that Mostert and Achane can both continue to succeed in the high-flying Dolphins offense.

Assessing Mostert’s Floor and Ceiling

Mostert obviously does have a rather low floor because of his injury risk and potential volume competition. If Achane vastly outplays Mostert from the jump, there is a possibility that Mostert takes a backseat and is used solely as a goal-line running back. However, I think that risk is already factored into his current draft spot. As the RB26, we aren’t expecting Mostert to be a rock solid every-week starter. On the other hand, Mostert has quite a high ceiling. If Achane goes down with an injury, we already know that Mostert is capable of putting together an elite season as he did it just last year.

Altogether, I believe Mostert is worth taking at his draft position. I expect him to remain relevant in the Dolphins offense even if Achane is healthy, and the two have proven they can put up big numbers alongside one another. I like Mostert a lot more than the classic high-volume, low-output dead-zone running backs on bad teams going ahead of him this year, namely guys like Jonathan Brooks, Zamir White, and Rhamondre Stevenson. In the eighth or ninth round, Mostert would be a great high-upside third running back for your team, but can also serve as your RB2 on an anchor-RB team.

The Bottom Line

• Mostert is coming off a career season where he led the NFL in touchdowns and finished as the overall RB2.
• Mostert has dealt with injuries for much of his career, but has put together two consecutive healthy seasons and is not as old as his age indicates.
• The expected rise of De'Von Achane into the Dolphins starting running back role has dropped Mostert’s ADP quite a bit. However, I believe that Mostert and Achane can coexist in a lightning and thunder running back committee.
• Mostert is a solid pick at his ADP of RB26 and 81st overall. He does have a rather low floor due to his injury history and potential lack of volume, but in the later rounds, he is worth the risk. I am a big fan of having him as one of the first guys off my bench on my fantasy teams this year.