44 Key Stats to Know Before Your Fantasy Football Draft

Jul 29, 2024

44 Key Stats to Know Before Your Fantasy Draft

JIM RASSOL/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK

I just finished my annual task of writing fantasy football draft blurbs for most of the fantasy-relevant players in the league heading into the 2024 draft season, so I thought I’d once again share some of the more interesting stats and splits that I ran across during the time spent researching each position. The draft blurbs can always be accessed on the rankings page (click the little text box next to the player’s name) and on each individual player page.

I discovered many of these stats while using 4for4’s Market Share Splits App, developed by 4for4 Contributor and data scientist Kevin Zatloukal (Twitter: @kczat). The excellent site, Stathead.com, was also a helpful resource.

Here’s a link to last year’s article for those who want to view the receipts. There are always a few duds but I think for the most part the stats were pretty actionable in 2023.

James Cook’s touches spiked once OC Joe Brady took over.

James Cook saw a big bump in usage in his second season (6.9 to 16.5 per game) and finished RB10 with the 17th-highest per-game average. Counting two postseason games, Cook’s touches really spiked once Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator in Week 11. Cook averaged 14.4 touches for 84 yards and 0.20 touchdowns in the first 10 games with Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator. [1] In his final nine games under Brady, he averaged 20.1 touches for 100 yards and 0.44 touchdowns. That works out to 14.2 fantasy points per game, which equates to low-end RB1 numbers.

Reunited with Brady, Curtis Samuel could serve as Buffalo’s de facto WR1.

Curtis Samuel is a long-time favorite of Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon, and whenever one of his favorites sees a role or quarterback change, I take notice. Harmon charted Samuel in the 2018-2020 seasons and he finished with a success rate of 75%+ versus man coverage–88th percentile, which is very good–in all three seasons. His 2023 charting revealed a 75.4% success rate versus man, and he posted a career-high 80.0% success rate versus zone. In his last four seasons with 15+ games played, Samuel has crested 613 receiving yards in all four years and has added an average of 139 yards per year as a runner. Harmon adds, “...everything about his profile shows that he will make a significant impact for a team that needs him.” Moreover, [2] Samuel is being reunited with OC Joe Brady who squeezed a WR25 finish out of him in 2020 (with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback). Samuel had 118 touches (41 carries) for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns that year. With a WR51 ADP, he will be one of my primary late-round targets this season.

De'Von Achane has overall RB1 upside but also may have a ceiling of 14 touches per game, and that’s okay.

As a rookie, De'Von Achane finished as the fantasy RB22 while missing six games. He posted the fourth-highest per-game average, just behind his teammate Raheem Mostert. [3] He led the league in yards before contact per attempt (4.7), yards after contact per attempt (3.1), and was fourth in broken tackles per attempt (0.126). He was first in PFF’s rush grade and 13th in receiving grade. He’s a star in the making and has overall RB1 upside, but his workload is a concern. The 32-year-old Mostert is still around and should absorb 10-15 carries if he remains healthy. Achane only averaged 11.2 touches in the nine games he played with Mostert, but he did see an average of 13.9 touches in seven games when his first game (two touches in Week 2 vs. NE) and his injury game (two touches in Week 11 vs. LV) are removed. He averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game in those seven games, which is actually more than the 17.2 fantasy points he averaged in the two games that Mostert missed. If Achane sees around 14 touches per game and can stay healthy, he’s going to finish as a solid fantasy RB1. Any increase in touches could lead to a top-three type season.