Monotone's Week 3 Best Bets: Week 3 NFL Player Prop Bets

Sep 19, 2024

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We are back for another crack at the NFL slate after last week's article resulted in a small profit. Week 3 is here, and we have plenty of action for an exciting weekend. In today's article, I break down the rushing upside for a couple of superstar quarterbacks, along with a plethora of other player props. It's still a great time of the year to get early value on players with new roles that aren't being reflected by the sportsbooks: find out who I'm backing to do just that.

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NFL Props

Rhamondre Stevenson o2.5 receptions -139

(-130 BR/MGM, -139 C, -145 DK, -155 FD) - Risk 0.69u to win 0.5u

The Patriot's O-line is not only awful, but they also had to deal with multiple starters listed on the injury report, with OT Vederian Lowe and G Sidy Sow ruled out. They have already allowed the second-highest pressure rate on the season and this profiles as a prime bounceback game for the Jets front four.

Per beat reporter Andrew Callahan:

Patriots opponents have blitzed them just 6 times over 2 games. Despite that, the Pats have allowed a pressure rate of 45.9%.

They also are tied for the lead in quick pressure rate allowed, which is pressure allowed in under 2.5 seconds, according to MB Fantasy Life. Even if they wanted to throw the ball down the field, the O-Line actually isn’t allowing the time. In addition, you have the worst WR group in the NFL going up against arguably the best secondary in football, especially with Reed and Carter practicing in full. Brissett will need to get the ball out extremely quickly, and Stevenson has run at least 20 routes in both games this season, with Gibson seeing surprisingly minimal passing game usage (21 vs 4 routes last week).

When Stevenson recorded 20+ routes last season, he was over this number in 3/3 games. It seems like the sportsbooks haven't caught up with his role versus Antonio Gibson. The game plan will be run, run, then run some more… but likely trailing and put in a negative script; they should rely on Stevenson through the air enough to cash this ticket.