Week 6 NFL Pick 'Em & Survivor Picks

As we dive into Week 6, we’ll kick things off with a dive into pick ’em pool strategy and then guide you through the best approaches for navigating the chaos of survivor pools in the weeks ahead. We’ll be getting an assist from Pool Genius for some analysis.

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The Chalk

Many players get caught up in the details when discussing pick’em pools, often overlooking the bigger picture. While getting games right is crucial, the game theory aspect is often underemphasized. Pick’em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about knowing the Xs and Os. We’ll analyze how the public’s picks are trending each week and use that insight to guide our decisions.

Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots
Pick: Houston
Confidence Point Range: 8-10

Drake Maye will get the call at home for his first start this weekend. The 3rd overall pick sends Jacoby Brissett to the bench. The Patriots sit at 1-4 and seem to be switching to “let’s see what we have for 2025” mode. The rookie making his debut throws a slight monkey wrench into this pick, as it could boost New England, but they are bad enough that I’m not too concerned. About 75% of pool pickers are on our side here as this is one of the most lopsided games on the slate. It’s nearly impossible to find a stat where the Patriots are outperforming the Texans so far this season. A touchdown on the road is a tall order but New England isn’t scaring me here.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Carolina
Confidence Point Range: 6-8 Points

I’d like to go contrarian here. The Panthers made the switch to Andy Dalton and pulled off the upset against the Raiders but turned back into a pumpkin after that. It’s tough to fully grasp either of these teams. The Falcons haven’t covered this line in any of their victories. They have all come in close games. With Atlanta heading to Carolina, it’s hard to picture a dominating effort. A sloppy game is more likely to stay within one score.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll outline my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick 'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders
Pick: Washington
Confidence Point Range: 7-9 Points

Outside of the Buffalo game, the Ravens have been unable to put teams away this year. They’re coming off of a tough, divisional game that went to overtime and have to turn around and face an upstart Washington squad. The Commanders are currently the class of the NFC East. Although, I’m not sure whether that’s even really a compliment or not. Jayden Daniels looks like the real deal, he’s leading the offense with the highest EPA/play in the league. I think that Washington can keep pace and keep this within a score regardless of how Baltimore comes out.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

The Top Options

This is a pretty sad victory lap, but I said last week “Seattle, San Francisco, and Washington are the three top teams from a popularity perspective in survivor pools this weekend. Considering how 2024 has gone, that means two of those teams will probably lose!”. The Seahawks and 49ers did end up losing, so we nailed it!

There’s a clear trio that people are gravitating towards again this week. Philadelphia, Houston, and Atlanta are all projected above 15% popularity. From a future value standpoint, I’d like to save Philadelphia, if possible. They have twice as much future value as the other two popular options this weekend. Houston is -315 on the money line and going up against a rookie quarterback making his debut. The only thing giving me slight pause is that the Texans are going to Foxboro for the game, but I think DeMeco Ryans is going to dial up looks that give Drake Maye fits.

Our general plan, assuming success this week should be to use Washington in Week 7 against Carolina. Then, we’ll likely follow that up with Detroit against Tennessee in Week 8. With the way the survivor season has gone so far, that might be the end of the second-chance pools and we’ll be heading into third-chance pools by then!

The Bottom Line

There’s always too big of a focus on saving teams in survivor pools, but this year especially that has been shown to be a fool’s errand. It’s important to have some eye towards the future but not at the expense of winning a given week. This next three-week stretch is going to be important and I think we have mapped the course pretty well. Pick ‘em pools are in a critical stage now, too while byes begin to hit and we have fewer confidence points at our disposal. Getting contrarian if you’re falling behind - or even in the middle of the pack - is crucial at this stage.