Week 7 NFL Pick Em & Survivor

As we dive into Week 7, we’ll kick things off with a dive into pick ’em pool strategy, and then guide you through the best approaches for navigating the chaos of survivor pools in the weeks ahead. We’ll be getting an assist from PoolGenius for some analysis.

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The Chalk

Many players get caught up in the details when discussing pick’em pools, often overlooking the bigger picture. While getting games right is crucial, the game theory aspect is often underemphasized. Pick’em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about knowing the Xs and Os. We’ll analyze how the public’s picks are trending each week and use that insight to guide our decisions.

Washington Commanders (-8) vs Carolina Panthers
Pick: Washington
Confidence Point Range: 12-14

This pick is projected to be one of the most popular on the slate. For that reason, if you’re falling far behind in pick ‘em it may make sense to go with Carolina. Realistically, though, it’s hard to find a reason to pick the Panthers other than just for game theory purposes. The Commanders are flying high with Jayden Daniels and lead the Panthers in every statistical category. They have plenty of points in them, which makes me feel comfortable picking this side.

Atlanta Falcons (-6) vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: Seattle
Confidence Point Range: 6-8 Points

I’d like to go contrarian here and go against the Falcons once again. They’re sitting at 4-2 right now, but I’m just not buying it at the moment. Besides that thrashing of the Panthers last week, they haven’t exactly “left no doubt”. The three previous wins they have were by a combined nine points. This is a good spot for pick ‘em pools with about 25% of picks going for Seattle, this could be a nice way to move up the standings a bit. It’s not like the Seahawks are some brutal, Panthers-esque squad. They’re 3-3 and have talent on offense to keep this reasonably close.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll outline my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick 'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Houston Texans (+3) at Green Bay Packers
Pick: Houston
Confidence Point Range: 7-9 Points

PoolGenius has this projected as 52-48 in favor of the Green Bay Packers. Getting these games correct is vital to pick’ em pool success. It’s great to nail a random 25% pick here and there, but if you can stack correct picks in games like these it’ll go much further for your overall chances of winning the pool.

Houston runs more plays and controls the ball slightly better than Green Bay. The Texans have the highest explosive pass rate in the league through the first six weeks and Green Bay is in the bottom eight at explosive pass rate allowed. That should be enough to keep this game close and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans win outright.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

The Top Options

As I mentioned at the end of last week’s article, our main focus is the Washington Commanders. With matchups against a suddenly good Bears team, division rival Giants and Eagles, and the Steelers coming up over the next month, we won’t be using them any time soon. They are -360 on the moneyline and look to be picked by about one-third of pool participants, according to Pool Genius.

The second-most popular option this week is the Buffalo Bills, hosting Tennessee as 9-point favorites. It’s tempting to save them since they do have some value over the next month or so, but we’ve also seen that doesn’t always play out the way we want it to. Pool Genius has them projected for about 30% popularity, but I’m curious to see how it shakes out given that people may want to save them a bit longer.

The only other team in double-digits is the Los Angeles Rams who are hosting the now Davante Adams-less Las Vegas Raiders. From a money line perspective, The Rams are right in line with the other popular picks but at about one-third the popularity. This could be an all-time backfire and my gut has been to go with Washington since last week but the Rams are a sneaky option with basically no future value until Weeks 11 and 17.

The Bottom Line

Your pick ‘em strategy should be coming directly from the standings at this point. If you’re falling behind the leaders, it’s time to take some big swings in October so you can catch up and play conservatively down the stretch. If you’re the one with the big lead, you should be mostly going with the current and letting popularity drive most of your picks.

Survivor has been a virtual hellscape all year but some of that settled down last weekend. My gut has been to go with Washington. Both because of Washington’s strength and Carolina’s weaknesses but the Rams are an intriguing option if you’re looking to go off the board a bit.