Week 9 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets
Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
Week 8 Recap: 5-0, +$566 (assuming $100 units)
Overall: 19-8, +$997 (assuming $100 units)
Four plays so far this week, all released in our discord yesterday and today. Week 8 was another smash week as we went 5-0! We’ve also been on absolute heater, winning 14 of our last 15 bets.
The wins from last week were: De'Von Achane o3.5 receptions, Sean Tucker u1.5 receptions, Jonnu Smith u30.5 receiving yards, Demarcus Robinson o25.5 receiving yards, and Dak Prescott o34.5 pass attempts. Despite the win on Robinson, it is probably a bet I would take back; I released Robinson Thursday early morning, unaware that Puka had a real chance of playing (and making a significant impact). But, a win is a win, and Robinson had the highest snap count of any of the Rams WRs despite both Kupp and Puka returning. I loved getting Achane at + money because they were facing an easy defense, and in the small sample size to start the season, he was earning targets at an unprecedented rate for an RB, and the market wasn’t completely factoring in Tua’s return. In typical Dallas offense fashion, they struggled to sustain drives, so a bet that should have been sweat-free on Dak came down to the last drive, but I would make this bet again as the 49ers forced the Cowboys into passing a lot. Tucker and Jonnu were the last two bets and were sweat-free for the most part.
Week 9 NFL Best Bets
Rico Dowdle UNDER 2.5 receptions (+107) Prop City
Released in Discord on 10/31. On the season, Dowdle has only ran a route on 32% of Dallas dropbacks. Dalvin Cook was finally activated last week and got a small workload. While Dowdle is the lead runner in Dallas, they mix in multiple backs in the pass game (Zeke 26% route participation and Luepke 28% on the season). The script for Dallas recently has been: fall behind big early and play catch up. This week, the Cowboys are 3-point road dogs, so they should be able to keep this one close.
Jalen Hurts OVER 17.5 Pass Completions (-123) Prop City
Released in Discord on 10/31. The Jaguars have allowed the 3rd most completions in the NFL entering Week 9 and the second-highest QB rating. Hurts is also 6th in fantasy points per dropback against man, a defense the Jaguars play a ton of. The biggest worry here is if the Jags can push the Eagles enough and force Hurts to throw. Even though Christian Kirk is out for the year, it looks like the Jags will have Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. healthy for this game, and the Eagles' defense has been average this season, so I think the Jags can stay competitive enough to get Hurts over this number.
JK Dobbins UNDER 70.5 Rush Yards (-119) Prop City
Released in Discord on 11/1. Dobbins was quite the story to start the season as he has battled through so many injuries and looked great, but in the last five games Dobbins is averaging an abysmal 3.16 yards per carry and has ZERO explosive runs. The Browns are an OK run defense, and Dobbins would have to see a lot of carries to go over this. Also, lately, the Charges have been one of the most pass-happy teams in the league (9th in PROE in the last 4 weeks), even with OC Greg Roman. The Chargers have stated that they want Justin Herbert to beat teams with his arm, and that's exactly what he's done, throwing for 288 yards per game in the last 3 weeks.
Kayshon Boutte UNDER 29.5 Receiving Yards (-120) Prop City
Released in Discord on 11/1. This number is artificially high after Boutte finished with three catches for 46 yards last week against the Jets, as 2-38 came on the Patriots' last drive. Prior to the six targets he got last week, Boutte's target share on the season was <6%. This Patriots-Titans game also features a 38-point total and should be one of the slowest pace games of the week. In his Snaps and Pace article, Pat Thorman notes NE "deploys the sixth-lowest pass rate and games yield the fourth-fewest combined snaps, and fifth-lowest explosive play rate," while the Titans are similar in all these categories.
Be sure to get in our Discord, as I may push out plays over the weekend as well. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game), or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.
You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the Rebet Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Rebet Ping to get notifications for the bets as they are released.
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DubClub
I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays and through eight weeks,we have released a total of 147 individual props (49 total entries).
Individual play record of: 85-62 (58% win rate)
Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 3, you would have a 16% expected ROI this season!
If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!
If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!
This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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