O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 10

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, including an offensive line's positive and negative impact on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below, I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and, when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches, will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 10 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what offensive line/defense matchups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

49ers @ Buccaneers

The 49ers have been dealing with considerable injuries to their offense all season long, but their offensive line has stayed relatively healthy, ignoring LT Trent Williams’ ejection back in Week 7 for punching Chiefs safety Bryan Cook. Outside of that gaff, Williams has continued to prove he is one of, if not the best tackle in the league, allowing only 12 pressures and one sack over 296 pass-blocking snaps. That sack was actually only the third credited to the vet since the beginning of the 2022 season, a nearly unbelievable run of domination.

This week, the San Francisco line will take on a Bucs defense that has had a miserable time stopping opposing passing attacks. While Tampa Bay can find its way into the quarterback’s pocket, the secondary hasn’t held up its end of the bargain, allowing a 121.3 QB rating when forcing pressure over the past four games, which is the third-highest mark in the league.

Deebo Samuel should be jammed in all lineups, along with George Kittle, while Jauan Jennings is a great Flex option in what should be a high-scoring affair.

Eagles @ Cowboys

Who knew the 6’7”, 360-pound Mekhi Becton was just playing out of position for his four years with the Jets? Issues with playing disciplined, keeping his weight under check, and even seeing the field due to injuries, Becton was thought of as an “addition by subtraction” from New York’s point of view, and the likelihood that he would be an NFL-level starting guard after a career as a tackle didn’t seem very strong. Well, Philly has continued to work its O-line magic (playing next to Lane Johnson certainly helps), and they once again have one of the better units in the league, despite Becton moving to the inside and Jason Kelce moving into media.

Much of the Cowboys’ woes on defense can be attributed to injuries, but it looks as though we’ll get at least one more week of aggressively targeting them in fantasy matchups. Marshawn Kneeland and DeMarcus Lawrence are guaranteed to be out, while Jordan Phillips and all-world pass-rusher Micah Parsons are in the questionable-to-doubtful range for Week 10. Since Parsons went down back in Week 4, the Cowboys haven’t been credited with a single sack, while allowing the highest adjusted yards per attempt in the league (9.37) and the fourth-highest completion percentage over expected (6.3%).

The Eagles should carve through their divisional rivals this week, essentially closing the door on a potential playoff run, while giving A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith the ceiling/floor combinations to consider both top-15 options.

Vikings @ Jaguars

The Christian Darrisaw season-ender was brutal news for an offensive line that was playing great in front of Sam Darnold, but at least the team quickly made the move to add Cam Robinson from Jacksonville to ease the pain. Robinson is nowhere near the talent level of Darrisaw, but this is still a strong group; and plenty strong enough to take care of the Jaguars’ defense.

If there’s a baseline for offensive linemen playing against their former team(s) just weeks after a trade, I don’t know of it, but the subsequent trade of EDGE Roy Robertson-Harris will likely diminish Jacksonville’s already-shaky pass rush. Even with Josh Allen-Hines out there terrorizing quarterbacks, the Jaguars have a 5.6% adjusted sack rate and a -2.31% pressure rate over expected, each of which ranks 28th in the league.

This all points toward another great game out of Sam Darnold. Out of 33 quarterbacks who have at least 100 dropbacks deemed “no pressure”, Darnold ranks third in QB rating (118.4), third in adjusted yards per attempt (9.55), and second in completion percentage over expected (10.7%). Darnold is a locked-in QB1 option this week, and T.J. Hockenson should begin his run of set-it-and-forget-it in Week 10.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Dolphins @ Rams

The Los Angeles Rams’ offense had been trending up until Week 9, when both Puka Nacua and right tackle Rob Havenstein were forced from the contest. Nacua is no long-term concern, considering he just got himself ejected, but Havenstein is a different story, as his ankle injury looks like it will sideline him for Week 10. And though guards Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson’s respective 21-day practice windows are opening this week, there’s no guarantee that they will be starting on Monday Night.

This bodes well for the Miami Dolphins D/ST, which should be considered for a Flex spot in MNF Showdown slates.

Commanders vs. Steelers

While the trade for Marshon Lattimore isn’t likely to come into play in Week 10, it shows a commitment from the team to further improve their defense in a season that is likely going better than most people outside of Washington believed it would. Though they have given up explosive performances to the Buccaneers (37 points), Bengals (33), and Ravens (30), they have allowed an average of 14.8 points to the rest of their six opponents, continually locking down the passing game.

Over the course of the season, Pittsburgh has allowed the 8th-highest pressure rate (36.5%) and though we should expect raw sacks to diminish with Russell Wilson > Justin Fields at the helm, the veteran has still taken five sacks over the last two weeks, including four against the Giants as the team headed into their bye week. The Commanders should be considered a strong streaming defense with a nice floor in Week 10.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

Colts vs. Bills

While the back-and-forth nature of the Colts’ quarterback position has been a headache for fantasy managers attempting to start their wide receivers, the run game has remained a constant throughout the season. On the year, the Colts have the seventh-best RB yards before contact on the season (1.94), while we’ve seen Jonathan Taylor hit double-digit fantasy points in five of his six healthy games.

The Bills present a light challenge for the Colts offensive line and Taylor himself, as Buffalo has allowed 2.33 yards before contact (30th) and 33.3% of opposing rushing yards coming on runs of 15+, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Taylor is a top-5 option for Week 10.

Falcons @ Saints

It looks like the Saints might finally be ready to escape the “below-average” section of the league and drop down to the race for the No. 1 pick after shipping Marshon Lattimore over to the Commanders in exchange for some mid-round NFL Draft capital. The Saints are currently 2-7 and have a -84 point differential since their two explosive performance to lead off the year, with a ton of that production coming from the ground game.

Opposing rushing attacks are averaging 2.15 yards before contact (29th) and 5.08 YPA (30th), both of which could look even worse after this matchup with the Falcons, who rank eighth in adjusted line yards (4.69). Bijan Robinson is an auto-click here, while Tyler Allgeier is actually a pretty good Week 10 Flex option, with the idea that Atlanta give him more run in a potential blowout.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad matchup through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing:

• Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
• Travis Etienne, Jaguars
• Jaylen Warren, Steelers