Week 14 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 13 Recap: 1-3, -$260 (assuming $100 units)

Overall: 28-18, +$748 (assuming $100 units)

Week 13 was our first losing week since Week 2. The lone win was an easy one: Cade Otton UNDER 47.5 receiving yards. The losses were: Mike Gesicki UNDER 2.5 receptions, Saquon Barkley OVER 2.5 receptions, and Dontayvion Wicks OVER 35.5 receiving yards.

Of the three losses, I’d probably take the Gesicki one back. The Bengals' defense is so bad, which is constantly forcing them into shootouts and a ton of dropbacks. Gesicki ended with five catches on five targets. The Wicks loss was definitely the most frustrating. We saw this line close above 40, and we saw Wicks earn only five targets despite being out there on almost every snap. I generally hate taking RB receiving overs, but in a matchup against the Ravens, I expected more dropbacks than usual from Philly. The Eagles were also without DeVonta Smith, which opened up more targets on offense. However, we saw the Eagles cruise to a relatively easy victory where Hurts only attempted 19 passes. Onto Week 14…

Week 14 NFL Best Bets

Chuba Hubbard UNDER 14.5 Rush Attempts (-118) Prop City

Released in Discord on 12/5. Last week, Chuba only out-carried Brooks 12-6, and Chuba also fumbled the game away in OT. While I don't think the fumble will put Chuba in the dog house, I think the Panthers want to see what they have in their rookie RB, especially in a game where they have very little chance of winning. This Eagles' defense has been great, and I expect them to shut down everything the Panthers bring to the table despite Bryce Young's sudden resurgence (lol). 15 carries is a lot for any back in a game when the spread is 12.5, not to mention Chuba also has 2nd round rookie Brooks breathing down his neck for playing time.

Isiah Pacheco UNDER 12.5 Rush Attempts (-120) Prop City

Released in Discord on 12/5. In Pacheco's first game back, he and Hunt split work evenly: Pacheco 26 snaps and 7 carries, Hunt 27 snaps and 7 carries. Samaje Perine continued to handle the 3rd down/pass game work, playing every snap in the 2-minute drill and 11/12 third down snaps. While Pacheco will overtake Kareem Hunt and become the clear 1A in this backfield, I expect Hunt to remain involved. The Chiefs are 11-1 and should save a full workload for Pacheco for the playoffs. This will be Pacheco's second game since returning from his injury, and while the Chargers haven't been a great defense against the run, Pacheco will probably need to have double-digit carries to clear this, and I'm not sure he will get that.

George Pickens OVER 4.5 Receptions (-106) Prop City

Released in Discord on 12/6. Since Russ took over at QB, Pickens has been the clear focal point and alpha in the Steelers offense, earning 45 targets (24 more than the next player). In the snow game a couple weeks ago against Cleveland, Pickens turned 7 targets into 4 receptions. We should see a more pass-friendly environment this weekend in a must-win game for the Steelers. The Steelers will also likely be without WR2 Calvin Austin, so there could be even more targets coming Pickens way.

Jonathan Brooks OVER 12.5 Rushing Yards (-122) Prop City

Released in Discord on 12/6. Brooks had 6 carries last week for 18 yards, and to the eye test looked pretty good. The Panthers are massive dogs against the Eagles and likely won't be in many running situations. Still, Brooks was the Panthers' second-round draft pick, and in a game where they stand little to no chance of winning outright, getting a good look at your talented rookie back would make sense. This is such a low line; Brooks could go over on one carry.

Be sure to get in our Discord, as I may push out plays over the weekend as well. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game), or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

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DubClub

I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays and through thirteen weeks,we have released a total of 193 individual props (65 total entries).

Individual play record of: 118-75 (61.14% win rate)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 5, you would have a 70.87% expected ROI this season!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!

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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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