Breakout Receiver Model: Week 16

Dec 18, 2024

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Welcome back to the breakout receiver model for Week 16 of the NFL season. Many of us are now in fantasy semifinals, onto the money rounds of bestball tournaments. But even if you're just in the "DFS grinder" potion of the season, the breakout model can still help by finding hidden value yet to be uncovered as we near the finish line of the NFL regular season. At this point in the year, we’re focusing less on “buy low” and “sell high” tactics, and simply try to predict strong plays for the week (or weeks) ahead, alongside players who might need lower expectations. Finally, we’ll add in some DFS values identified by the model alongside our top breakout candidates, as well.

About the Breakout Receiver Model

The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that are typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.