2025 March Madness Bracket Strategy
No one will have a perfect NCAA tournament bracket, but there are ways to maximize your edge in March Madness pools!
I’ve written this column each of the past few years and it has led to some encouraging results. Last year, UConn was a primary recommendation, along with Purdue, both of which were in the finals. Two years ago I recommended Uconn as one of the primary contenders and the year prior I identified both Gonzaga and Houston as potential champions who ultimately reached the Final Four.
This year's article will delve into fundamental bracket strategies, analyze the statistical profile of past champions, and unveil advanced techniques for selecting a victor. If you want access to all of our bets including NBA, MMA, NFL Draft, PGA, and more get 10% off with code: WIN10
2025 March Madness Bracket Strategy
Everyone has their own strategies for taking down their March Madness pool, but following these easy steps will make sure you are at least in contention to take down the top prize in your pool.
March Madness Strategy: Pick All the 1-Seeds Over 16-Seeds
I know; Purdue just lost to FDU two years ago as a 1-seed. No. 1 seeds are 154-2 in the first round of the NCAA tournament—Virginia was the only other loss as a No. 1 seed (2018 against UMBC). I would ignore those outliers and pick all the No. 1 seeds to win their first game.
March Madness Strategy: Use Betting Spreads to Make Picks & Choose “Upsets”
Plain and simple, the betting market is much more efficient than bracket seeding. For example, in 2019, Wisconsin (5) vs. Oregon (12) was a No. 5 seed vs. a No. 12 matchup, but Wisconsin was only a one-point favorite. If we compare this to another No. 5 seed vs. No. 12 seed matchup between Auburn and New Mexico State, Auburn was a 7.5-point favorite. If you want to pick a No. 12 seed to win, you are much better off taking Oregon than New Mexico State. A normal person filling out a bracket sees two No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchups. Looking at the spread tells a different story, though, as Wisconsin and Oregon are essentially 50/50 to win. Oregon won by nearly 20 points while Auburn escaped with a narrow victory, but the point remains true. The same thought process should be applied to every game you pick, especially between No. 8 vs. No. 9, No. 7 vs. No. 10, and No. 6 vs. No. 11 seeded matchups where most bracket entries will likely choose randomly. Early betting lines are out now, and some similar lower-seeded teams are already the favorites.
An example for this year is #12 Colorado State vs #5 Memphis. Colorado State are 2.5-point favorites despite being a much lower seed.
March Madness Strategy: Understand your Bracket Pool
If your bracket is only with 10 people, you don’t have to pick too many crazy upsets or sleepers. Having just 1 or 2 seeds in your final four isn’t crazy at all, especially when considering how strong the top of the pool is this year. It really isn’t until your bracket pool becomes closer to 100 people that you have to start being more contrarian with your champion choices. Think of it this way: the bigger the pool, the more unique you want your bracket to be.
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March Madness Strategy: Choosing a Winner for your Bracket
Even if you pick nearly everything right in the first few rounds, you will still likely need to pick the winner in order to take home the money from your pool. Leveraging historical data from KenPom.com to analyze past winners can help guide us in what to look for. This isn’t an end-all-be-all, but it can help us identify the profile of which teams traditionally take home the hardware.
Before we dive in, below are the key metrics to understand:
- Adjusted Efficiency Margin: How efficient a team is on offense and defense, adjusted for how good their opponents were.
- Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: How efficient a team is on offense, adjusted for how good their opponents were.
- Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: How efficient a team is on defense, adjusted for how good their opponents were.
March Madness Strategy: Balance is Key
19 of the past 22 (86%) winners ranked in the top six in adjusted efficiency margin heading into the tournament.
For all the notoriety of upsets and “madness” in the tournament, winners are almost always well-balanced teams heading into the tournament.
This year, the top-six teams in adjusted efficiency margin are:
- Duke
- Florida
- Houston
- Auburn
- Tennessee
- Alabama
March Madness Strategy: Offense Wins Championships
21 of the past 22 winners have ranked inside the top 21 in adjusted offensive efficiency. This includes a smaller trend of 7 consecutive winners ranking in the top-6 in offensive efficiency heading into the tournament.
All of the teams in the top six in adjusted efficiency margin also rank in the top-21 of adjusted offense but teams with high adjusted efficiency margin like Michigan State (8th) are just 27th in adjusted offense. St Johns (65th offense), and Maryland (28th offense) also stand out at the top of the board as teams who may not have enough firepower to make a deep run if they face a team who gets hot.
March Madness Strategy: Getting Defensive
21 of the past 22 winners had a defense that went into the tournament ranked 37th or better in adjusted efficiency margin. 18-of-22 teams were top 30 defensively, and 14-of-22 were in the top 20 defensively.
The winner with the worst adjusted defensive efficiency to win was Baylor in 2021 (44th), while the average winner’s defense ranked 17.6, and the median was 13th. With that being said, there is a massive asterisk next to Baylor, who dealt with COVID issues for a chunk of their 2021 season. They had a ton of talent and were capable of playing amazing defense, but they had a stretch where key players played poorly. They were good to go by the tournament and played defense at a top-10 level.
All of the six teams listed in our initial list have top-44 defenses this year. Some other teams that stand out are Alabama with the 32nd-ranked defense, Texas Tech at 37th, Missouri at 73rd, Kentucky at 56th, and Purdue at 63rd. All of those teams are in the top-20 overall, but their defense may let them down.
March Madness Strategy: Contenders
Given the statistical thresholds that we see teams succeed with, there are X teams that I’ll be selecting to go far in brackets this year. This includes the initial list of 6 teams who are top-6 in efficiency margin, top-21 in adjusted offense, and top-37 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The other teams meet both the offensive and defensive thresholds but aren’t top-6 in total efficiency margin.
- Duke: 1st overall, 3rd in adjusted offense, 4th in adjusted defense
- Florida: 2nd overall, 1st in adjusted offense, 10th in adjusted defense
- Houston: 3rd overall 10th in adjusted offense, 2nd in adjusted defense
- Auburn: 4th overall, 2nd in offensive rating, 12th in adjusted defense
- Tennessee: 5th overall, 18th in adjusted offense, 3rd in adjusted defense
- Alabama: 6th overall, 4th in adjusted offense, 32nd in adjusted defense
- Texas Tech: 7th overall, 6th in adjusted offense, 37th in adjusted defense
- Gonzaga: 9th overall, 9th in adjusted offense, 29th in adjusted defense
- Iowa State: 10th overall, 20th in adjusted offense, 9th in adjusted defense
- Wisconsin 13th overall, 13th in adjusted offense, 27th in adjusted defense
- Arizona: 14th overall, 12th in adjusted offense, 33rd in adjusted defense
March Madness: Fringe Contenders
These teams meet one threshold and are close to another. As I mentioned at the beginning, these metrics are just a guideline but over a 6-game sample usually leads us to similar results. If a team is just a few spots off of a guideline, they should still be considered.
- Maryland: 28th offense, 6th in defense
- Michigan State: 27th offense, 5th defense
- Clemson: 24th offense, 16th defense
- Illinois: 15th offense, 21st defense
I would recommend picking one of the Contenders to win your bracket pool and the fringe contenders advancing at least in line with what the field expects.
I would also make sure to pay attention to injuries. Duke is obviously a great team without Cooper Flagg, but he suffered an injury during the conference tournament. His status is one to watch, especially after the first round of the tournament.
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