John Paulsen's 2025 March Madness Bracket Picks and Tips

Mar 17, 2025

March Madness is once again upon us, and since I have a bit of free time during the lull in NFL free agency I thought I’d write an article for 4for4 subscribers outlining the process I use to fill out my bracket. I tend to do quite well in my pools and it’s rare that my bracket isn’t in the hunt heading into the Final Four.

Last year, I correctly picked the overall winner (UConn) and the runner-up (Purdue).

Not surprisingly, my process is statistics-driven, utilizing the following tools:

Pomeroy ratings (overall, offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency)
Bracket Breakers (The Athletic)
Bart Torvik’s site
The Power Rank (TPR)
Evan Miya

Note: While I have plenty of data to use, I’ll admit that I’m not the most informed when it comes to key injuries to specific teams, so feel free to hit me up on Twitter (or email support) to let me know if I’ve overlooked something.

Hosting your own pool? Here’s a tip.

I’m in a long-running pool that has standard scoring with one caveat: For the first two rounds only, if someone correctly picks a (seed) upset, they are awarded the appropriate points for the win PLUS the difference in the seeds. For example, if a 10-seed beats a 7-seed in the first round, they would receive one point for the win plus three points (10 minus 7) for the upset, for a total of four points. It makes the first weekend even more fun when people are encouraged to pick upsets. (It’s also the smart thing to do in most matchups.)

Pool Genius

If you don't like my analysis, our friends over at Team Rankings have a feature called Pool Genius that can help you fill out your bracket.

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Pomeroy Ratings

Ken Pomeroy’s site has been a predictive tool for years.

In the last 16 years…

Fifty-six of the 64 Final Four (87.5%) teams went into March Madness ranked inside the Top 20 in KenPom overall rankings.
Nine of the past 16 NCAA champions (56.2%) were rated No. 1 at KenPom heading into the tournament.

In the last 22 years…

Twenty of the last 22 national champions (90.9%), including UConn’s back-to-back championship-winning teams, have entered the tournament Top 21 in offensive efficiency and Top 37 in defensive efficiency. I’ll call this the 21/37 Rule moving forward.
The last seven national champions entered the tournament in the Top 6 in offensive efficiency.

Bracket Breakers

Created by Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner, the Giant Killers blog has been under the ESPN umbrella for years, and I enjoy reading their quantitative take on the potential upsets in the first round. However, as of 2018, the duo left ESPN. They are now at The Athletic and are deploying their model under the “Bracket Breakers” moniker. Over the past three seasons, the duo’s Top 10 upsets have gone 5-5, 2-8, and 4-6, or 11-19 total. That’s a 37% hit rate, which is quite good considering they are only picking upsets.

After identifying the teams with the best chance for the Final Four/Elite Eight/Sweet Sixteen, I’ll refer to Bracket Busters to help fill out the first round. This resource is especially useful for brackets that reward extra points for picking upsets in the first round or two.

Bart Torvik, The Power Rank & Evan Miya

Torvik’s site is similar to Pomeroy’s, so it’s another data point to consider in tight matchups. I discovered The Power Rank last year, so I’ll refer to it in tight matchups as well. This year, I stumbled across Evan Miya on Instagram and he’s sharp so I’m going to include his data as well.

Note: Use code JOHN10 to get 10% off our already discounted 2025 subscriptions.

Top-Down Method

The Winner

If possible, I like to get my Final Four set, and work backward from there.

Based on Pomeroy trends, the last six champions had an offensive efficiency in the Top 6, so that includes Florida (1), Auburn (2), Duke (3), Alabama (4), Missouri (5), and Texas Tech (6), and all but Missouri have a defensive efficiency in the Top 37, so there are five teams that have an offensive efficiency in the Top 6 and a defensive efficiency in the Top 37. (Last year, there were only two–UConn and Purdue.)