DraftDay Week 5 Values & Top Plays
Looking at salaries this week, I noticed a few players who are “trap plays”. They are trap plays not because they simply don’t offer projected value, but for precisely the opposite reason. These players all have good projected value according to our DraftDay Value Report, but I believe their situations are a bit more volatile than the numbers may indicate. This, combined with the fact that these players will likely be highly owned because they stick out as values according to most projections, is why I’m inclined to fade them in Week 5.
- Larry Fitzgerald $8,500: Fitzgerald is at a discount based on what he’s done in the past, but correctly priced based on what he’s done this season, which isn’t much. Fitzgerald has been lacking explosion for a while now, and has been operating as a possession receiver. He’ll likely see a lot of quality coverage from Broncos slot CB Chris Harris.
- Travis Kelce $7,300: I usually advocate taking advantage of salaries that go unchanged because of Monday night games, but what I do not advocate is starting TEs against the 49ers, who can shut them down with Patrick Willis’s excellent coverage. If Kelce hadn’t gone off last week, he’d more more attractive as a contrarian GPP play. He only ran 17 routes on Monday night, and it will be difficult for him to repeat last week’s production at that usage rate in a tough matchup.
But enough with the fades, let’s get into some players who should be in your lineup this week.
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QB Ben Roethlisberger @ JAC $12,850
As a consistently mid-priced option, Big Ben always offers good value in the right matchup. The Jaguars are the right matchup. They have given up 344 passing yards and 2.75 passing TDs per game, allowing a 69 percent completion rate and only intercepting one pass through four weeks. The lowest amount of passing yards the Jags have allowed in a game is 288, and they’ve given up at least two passing TDs in every game.
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick @ DAL $10,950
Thanks to a ball control style of offense, Dallas’s defense has not been historically bad this season. That said, they haven’t been good, either. They are allowing 275.5 passing yards and 2.0 TDs per game. Fitzpatrick is a cheap matchup-based play who is capable of putting up enough numbers to pay off his price tag.
FitzMagic has thrown for 268 and 289 yards in his last two games, albeit with a 2:5 TD:Interception ratio. Against this Dallas defense, Fitzpatrick may be able to cut down the interceptions and throw for multiple TDs. He also is buoyed by a willingness to leave the pocket; he has at least six rushing attempts in his last two games and has scored four rushing TDs in his last 14 games.
QB Mike Glennon @ NO $10,400
At this price, Glennon makes for a solid play against a Saints defense that is third-worst in the NFL in aFPA to QBs. They’ve allowed 7.81 yards per attempt and have yet to intercept a pass through four weeks. They haven’t gotten much pressure, either, notching only five sacks this season to date. Glennon’s tendency to take shots down the field makes him an ideal GPP play but a risky cash play. He threw for 300 yards last week but completed only half of his 42 passes.
QB Austin Davis vs. PHI $10,100
The Eagles’ defense is always liable to give up huge fantasy days because they’re on the field a ton; they allow opponents to run the second-most plays per game (73.8) in the NFL. They have a tendency to make pedestrian QBs look good, giving up 266 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 picks to Chad Henne in Week 1, and then 427 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 pick to Kurt Cousins in Week 3. Davis has averaged 8.0 YPA so far this season, playing against similarly poor pass defenses.
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