DraftDay Week 9 Values & Top Plays
GPP Technique - The Double Stack
After Rob Gronkowski scored his bajillionth TD last week, I was looking at one of my GPP lineups and it came to my attention that DraftDay is the only “big three” daily site where you can employ the double stack (not to be confused with the Wendy’s cheeseburger of the same name, you hungry bastard).
You see, this particular lineup was doing well not only because I had Gronk stacked with Tom Brady but because I also had Nick Foles stacked with Jeremy Maclin. In tournaments, we want to create as much volatility as possible, and the best way to do this is by stacking a QB with his WR. And since DraftDay uses a two-QB format, you should be swinging for the fences by stacking both QBs with their receivers in large-field tournaments. While that might go without saying for some, there are many who may either have thought that would be “too much stacking”, or simply don't have much experience with the two-QB format.
DraftDay tends to have a bunch of middling QB values in the middle and lower tiers of pricing that maybe you wouldn’t feel fully confident playing in cash games. The good thing is most of those QBs will likely be low-owned. If you can double up on them and hit, it’s a huge advantage. Assume you have a QB that’s five percent owned and you pair him with another QB that’s also five percent owned.
0.05 * 0.05 = 0.025
In other words, there will likely be on average around 2.5 percent of entrants that had the same stack as you, and that’s before factoring in the receivers. So don’t be shy about going all out with your QB stacking. Embrace the double stack. One example of a very affordable double stack that could pay dividends this week is Eli Manning ($12,700) & Rueben Randle ($9,650) paired with Alex Smith ($11,750) & Travis Kelce ($7,300).
Here’s my stab at the Million Dollar Perfect Lineup:
- QB Peyton Manning: I’m expecting a shootout and he’s thrown less than 3 TDs just once. Update: With potentially heavy winds in New England, I'd lean towards Andrew Luck instead.
- RB Arian Foster: Eagles allow a ton of plays and Foster was already getting heavy volume.
- RB Marshawn Lynch: Multi-TD potential and should finally see some clock-killing work.
- WR Demaryius Thomas: I treat this like a GPP and go contrarian. Update: With potentially heavy winds in New England, I'm leaning towards T.Y.Hiilton to stack with Luck. I could also see Jeremy Maclin in this spot.
- WR Steve Smith: Steelers are weak at CB and Smitty will be looking to redeem himself after OPI call that cost him game-winning TD.
- WR Antonio Brown: Ravens with Jimmy Smith and Brown is even more of a beast at home.
- TE Rob Gronkowski: I don’t dare fade a healthy Gronk. Update: Even with the potentially heavy winds in New England, Gronk sees enough work in the short passing game and red zone that I'm not inclined to go away from him.
- K Steven Hauschka: Seahawks favored by 15 at home; should get a ton of opportunities.
- DEF Seattle Seahawks: Back at home and favored by double-digits, this is a game they could dominate.
RB Update: Although not blurbed below, with Gio Bernard ruled out, Jeremy Hill essentially becomes a must-play in cash games because of heavy anticipated volume at $9,050. His price also gives him tremendous upside for GPPs, but if you enter multiple lineups consider fading him in some because his ownership percentage will likely be sky high.
Editor's Note: You can get a free year of 4for4 by opening a new account and depositing at DraftKings, DraftDay or FanDuel. Details here.
QB Colin Kaepernick vs. STL $13,850
Kaepernick goes up against the Rams, who rank second-to-last in QB aFPA. St. Louis has been been a soft pass defense this season, giving up a 70 percent completion rate and 8.0 yards per attempt. Even better for Kape, they’ve allowed 8.25 yards per carry to QBs this season, and allowed a similar QB in Russell Wilson to put up a historic 300-passing yard, 100-rushing yard game against them two weeks ago. Kaepernick is a safe play with good upside this week.
QB Nick Foles @ HOU $13,750
Foles averages 291 passing yards and 1.71 passing TDs per game this season, and the Texans allow averages of 280 passing yards and 1.75 passing TDs per game. While Foles' matchup doesn’t jump off the page, he’s in line for solid production at a mid-tier cost. He’s also got some upside; he’s thrown for 300 yards in four of seven games so far.
QB Robert Griffin III @ MIN $10,700
Essentially a “punt” play, Griffin is a value because he’s expected to put up middle-of-the-pack numbers but is is tied for the second-cheapest QB. I don’t view him as a play with huge upside, but at near-minimum price for a QB, all he’d need is around 225 yards and one TD to hit value in cash games.
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