DraftKings Quarterback Pricing & Performance Review

The salary cap influences every decision you make in daily fantasy, yet there hasn't been much big-picture research done that analyzes player performance relative to the cap. For every cap dollar you spend, what is the return on investment? Do returns vary based on position, price point, or even individual player?

I compiled data on how every player performed relative to their salary in 2014. In the coming weeks, I will be taking a position-by-position look at player performance relative to the FanDuel and DraftKings salary caps. Links to each report can be found below as they become available.

FanDuel Pricing & Performance Reviews: QB, RB, WR, TE, K, D/ST

DraftKings Pricing & Performance Reviews: QB, RB, WR, TE, D/ST

Editors Note: If you open a new account with FanDuel with a minimum $10 deposit, you’ll receive a free one-year subscription to 4for4! Details here.

DraftKings Quarterback Value vs. Other Positions

DraftKings quarterbacks are next up. Table 1 below shows the average value¹ returned in 2014 by quarterbacks compared to other positions².

Quarterbacks on DraftKings returned the most value when they costed more than $9,000 or less than $7,000 last season. Similarly to FanDuel, Draftkings quarterbacks priced in the middle tiers struggled to return value relative to those close to the upper and lower extremes. Particularly striking is the massive advantage quarterbacks priced under $6,500 had in average value over other positions, which also mirrored FanDuel.

Unlike FanDuel, quarterbacks don't have the edge over every position when priced above $7,000. In fact, quarterbacks failed to best wide receivers in average value per game at every pricing tier above $7,000. All the signs point to favoring low-cost quarterbacks in lineup construction, but there's more data to digest. Value per game is merely a piece of the puzzle; how consistently a player can return value is also critical to fully understanding the level of risk involved with a roster selection.

DraftKings Quarterback Cash Game Value

The percentage of time a player "hit value" is a good way to measure player consistency versus the salary cap. Since you generally need to score around 150 points on DraftKings to win cash games, I calculated the percentage of time players hit 3x value. The results are shown in Table 2 below.

The figures above agree with those from Table 1: inexpensive options are returning the most value at quarterback. Between $5,000-$6,900, the 309 quarterbacks in that price range hit 3x value 40 percent of the time, which was over 10 percent higher than the 373 wide receivers (29 percent), the 229 running backs (27 percent), and the 77 tight ends (26 percent) in that price range.

There's no shortage of quarterbacks priced under $7,000 -- there were 309 of them last year, good for 60 percent of the entire quarterback population. Identifying value among the lower rungs of quarterback pricing -- which this article can help you with -- looks to be a key to success on DraftKings.

DraftKings Quarterback Tournament Value

Table 3 below displays how often players hit 4x value on DraftKings in 2014.

The consistent theme so far has been the lower tier of quarterbacks returning more value than higher-priced options, which holds true when it comes to hitting 4x value. What's more, the high-priced quarterbacks fared significantly worse at hitting 4x value than running backs or receivers. Of the 18 players who hit 4x value at a price of $8,000 or higher, only one was a quarterback, while 12 were wide receivers and five were running backs.

While 4x value will usually leave you in the money in a tournament, it took an average score of around 250 to take down a Millionaire Maker. Table 4 below shows how often players hit 5x value.

Reaching 5x value is a rare feat for players in the middle or upper salary tiers, and the data above shows us nothing we don't already know: the most expensive quarterbacks didn't have as much upside as players at other positions.

Individual Performance vs. DraftKings Salary Cap

Finally, table 5 below shows individual quarterback performance versus the cap.

Ryan Fitzpatrick and Kyle Orton found themselves among the quarterbacks with the highest average value, supporting the usefulness of inexpensive quarterbacks. It's also worth noting that three of the top six quarterbacks on the list did not begin the season as a starter, meaning their salary usually started at or near minimum price, further reinforcing the success relatively inexpensive quarterbacks are able to have on DraftKings.

Footnotes

1. Value = Fantasy points per one thousand salary dollars, or [fantasy points/ [salary / 1,000].

2. The sample size is in Appendix 1 below. For quarterbacks, only starts were used. For other positions, the challenge was eliminating minimum-priced players from the sample who wouldn't have been considered as fantasy starters, such as fullbacks or wide receivers who played only on special teams. Ultimately, I settled on removing all players at the minimum price who registered zero points. This method isn't perfect, as some players who wouldn't have been considered viable at minimum price remain if they registered any stats, but it was the most consistent way to eliminate many of the irrelevant data points at minimum salary while keeping the research process sane.