DraftKings Wide Receiver Pricing & Performance Review

The salary cap influences every decision you make in daily fantasy, yet there hasn't been much big-picture research done that analyzes player performance relative to the cap. For every cap dollar you spend, what is the return on investment? Do returns vary based on position, price point or even individual player?

I compiled data on how every player performed relative to their FanDuel and DraftKings salaries in 2014. In the coming weeks, I will be taking a position-by-position look at player performance relative to the FanDuel and DraftKings salary caps. Links to each report can be found below as they become available.

FanDuel Pricing & Performance Reviews: QB, RB, WR, TE, K, D/ST

DraftKings Pricing & Performance Reviews: QB, RB, WR, TE, D/ST

Editors Note: If you open a new account with DraftKings with a minimum $10 deposit, you’ll receive a free one-year subscription to 4for4! Details here.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Value vs. Other Positions

Table 1 below shows the average value¹ returned in 2014 by wide receivers compared to other positions²:

Unlike FanDuel,the most expensive wide receivers on DraftKings returned great value -- albeit in a small sample size (only nine times was a receiver priced $9,000 or higher all season).

Under $5,000, wide receivers returned more value than any other position, especially running backs. There's value to be had in cheap wide receivers because they tend to play more snaps than running backs in the lower tiers of pricing (barring injury to starter). The full point-per-reception format of DraftKings causes receiving targets to be worth over three times more than running back carries³.

DraftKings Wide Receivers Cash Game Value

The percentage of time a player "hit value" is a good way to measure player consistency versus the salary cap. Since you generally need to score around 150 points on DraftKings to win cash games, I calculated the percentage of time players hit 3x value. The results are shown in Table 2 below.

Table 2 highlights another distinction between DraftKings and FanDuel. On FanDuel, quarterbacks have a clear edge over wide receivers in cash game value at the higher pricing tiers, but the opposite is true on DraftKings. Wide receivers $7,000 and above hit 3x value a higher percentage of the time than quarterbacks at each and every $5,000 increment.

DraftKings Wide Receiver Tournament Value

Table 3 below displays how often players hit 4x value on DraftKings in 2014.

Similarly to FanDuel, wide receivers at the higher price points outpace their peers at other positions in the percentage of time they hit tournament value. Wide receivers $7,000 and above hit 4x value 27 of 154 times (18 percent), compared to 12 of 102 times for running backs (12 percent), and 12 of 203 times for quarterbacks (six percent).

The fact that wide receivers in the upper pricing tiers returned the best value in both cash games and tournaments relative to other positions suggests DraftKings tended to undervalue the top wide receivers in 2014. It's not a guarantee this trend continues -- they've had all offseason to modify their salary algorithm -- but it's something to keep in mind for 2015.

While 4x value will usually leave you in the money in a tournament, it took an average score of around 250 to take down a Millionaire Maker. Table 4 below shows how often players hit 5x value.

Hitting 5x value is a very rare feat regardless of the position, so not too much can be gleaned from the table above. The one thing that jumps out is wide receivers in the $4,000-$4,900 tier returned 5x value 37 of 344 times (11 percent), significantly higher than running backs (16 of 224, 7 percent) and tight ends (5 of 95, 5 percent). The data suggests wide receivers have the edge when deciding on your flex slot.

It's also worth noting that wide receiver is the best position to go contrarian. There were 139 different wide receivers that hit 5x value in 2014, far outpacing the 75 running backs, 52 tight ends, and 20 quarterbacks. Cat-skinners will tell you there is more than one way to do so, and the same is true at finding 5x value at wide receiver in a given week: 8.1 wide receivers per week hit 5x value, compared to 4.4 running backs, 3.1 tight ends, and 1.2 quarterbacks.

Individual Wide Receiver Performance vs. DraftKings Salary Cap

A list of the average value returned of all wide receivers in 2014 (minimum six games played, 10 DKP/Game) is shown below in Table 5.

Sixty percent of the top-10 wide receivers in terms of average value returned were rookies. Two more were players that changed teams before 2014 (Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders). Two more team-changers (Steve Smith, Golden Tate) and another rookie (Brandin Cooks) help round out the top 15. This suggests that DraftKings had trouble adjusting pricing for wide receivers in new situations, another thing to keep an eye on and take advantage of in 2015.

Footnotes

1. Value = Fantasy points per one thousand salary dollars, or [fantasy points/ [salary / 1,000].

2. The sample size is in Appendix 1 below. For quarterbacks, only starts were used. For running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends, the challenge was eliminating minimum-priced players from the sample who wouldn't have been considered as fantasy starters, such as fullbacks or wide receivers who played only on special teams. Ultimately, I settled on removing all players at the minimum price who registered zero points. This method isn't perfect, as some players who wouldn't have been considered viable at minimum price remain if they registered any stats, but it was the most consistent way to eliminate many of the irrelevant data points at minimum salary while keeping the research process sane.

3. Calculated using league-wide stats during 2014. Receiving targets included all targets, not just those by wide receivers. Since running backs and tight ends tend to see shorter targets, the discrepancy between how much a wide receivers target and a running back carry may be even greater than stated.