Fantasy Upside
The fantasy upside with Christian Watson was on display in Weeks 7-10 last season when he averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game (in Half-PPR scoring). Watson averaged an incredible 2.5 yards per route run last season, which was tied for seventh in the league. He was highly efficient with the ball in his hands, he also added 7 carries for 80 yards and 2 touchdowns on the season as well. We could easily see his role expand, but if it he just maintains the role he saw in the second half of the season, seeing close to seven targets per game, his efficiency should be able to maintain a level of success.
Fantasy Downside
The downside to Watson is that he might be getting drafted at his ceiling. His current ADP (40.9 and WR21) is quite high for a player on the extremes of efficiency and on an offense breaking in a new quarterback. If Jordan Love doesn’t live up to moderate expectations, the pass volume will likely drop and he won’t be able to thrive on efficiency alone. The Packers could also just run even more with their two-headed monster at RB even if Love is playing well.
2023 Bottom Line
There are paths to “failure” at his ADP, but his upside seems immense given what he was able to do as a rookie coming from a small school in North Dakota State. His drops are a bit worrying at 10%, which was tied for seventh in the league, but Matt LaFleur showed a willingness to get creative with his young playmaker last year. Draft at cost.