Cole Kmet

Week 6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Cole Kmet predictably came back down to earth in Week 4, notably receiving only three targets with underneath-maven Keenan Allen returning to the lineup. While his Week 5 (3-57-0) was more digestible, we could have expected more in a great matchup. He has a very similar matchup this week, which gives him a floor, but a ceiling we should continue to question. He's a fine low-end TE1 streamer.

Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Rams
After a disastrous one-target Week 1, Cole Kmet was used far more last week, seeing more offensive snaps (27-to-54), a higher route participation rate (27.3%-to-47.9%), and, most importantly, more targets (one-to-five). That heightened usage continued with Keenan Allen out, as he went nuclear (as far as tight ends are concerned) with a 10-97-1 stat line. Kmet might once again be the safety valve for Caleb Williams, who is getting manhandled in the pocket. He's a fantastic TE streamer for those in need.

Fantasy Upside
Through Cole Kmet's first two seasons as a professional, he scored a touchdown on only 1.5% of his targets, a nearly impossible feat for a team's starting tight end. Regression was coming, and it came in spades over these last two seasons, resulting in 8.2% of his targets finding the end zone. Four of those touchdowns came within the opponent's 10-yard-line last season as he tied with D.J. Moore with the most targets (7) in that area of the field. On an improved offense, that total could grow even larger in 2024.

Fantasy Downside
It's a common theme for Chicago Bears fantasy assets, but the target competition is real here. Kmet set new career highs in targets (88) and receptions (73) last year, but the calvary has arrived, and Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and possibly even D'Andre Swift have pushed him far down the pecking order. The team also added Gerald Everett, who is more than capable of earning targets in his own right. Even if one of the receivers went down, it's unlikely that Kmet would be anything more than the third option in the passing attack.

2024 Bottom Line
Kmet did what he could to help a struggling offense last season, logging a new career high in yards per route run (1.69) and solidifying himself as an option near the goal line. But as a week-to-week option in 2024, you have to squint to come away with a reason to draft him in fantasy. Last season was easily the best of his career —heck, he finished as the overall TE7— and he still scored less than 8.0 half-PPR points in nine games, and less than 4.0 in five of those. We likely just saw his fantasy ceiling.