Fantasy Upside
In the back half of last season, increased play-action usage saw the athletic David Njoku rumbling into open spaces, leading to multiple long touchdowns. The tight end finished the season with 10.3 yards-after-catch per reception on play-action, more than any other player at the position. The Browns would be wise to keep that play-action-heavy play-calling during Deshaun Watson's return to the lineup, which would lead to more open field catches (and chunk fantasy plays) for Njoku. Maintaining last season's pass-rush ratio with a hobbled Nick Chubb gives Njoku a floor to match his top-six ceiling.
Fantasy Downside
The addition of slot-option Jerry Jeudy is one thing, but Njoku's splits with Watson on the field are the biggest red flag when considering the tight end in fantasy. Over the 11 games Njoku and Watson have played together, the tight end has averaged 3.8 receptions, 36 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns, or, 7.12 half-PPR fantasy points per game. That mark would have made him the TE16 last season. His 10.67 FPPG with any other quarterback over that span would have slotted him in as the TE6. It's a stark split and one we should be aware of if we're projecting Watson to play for the entirety of 2024.
2024 Bottom Line
David Njoku is a terror with the ball in his hands, but his splits with and without Watson are simply too large to ignore. Eleven games is no small sample size in football, so it's difficult to write it off as meaningless. Granted, the quarterback has been awful in his time in Cleveland, so maybe a resurgent season will naturally lift those numbers up. The Browns added next to nothing to their pass-catching corps outside Jerry Jeudy, who has had his own struggles with reeling in the ball. Njoku should be the No. 2 option through the air this year, which gives him a floor as a locked-in TE1. His ascension into the middle ground of the TE1 conversation depends on Watson's improvement.
