Fantasy Upside
Deebo Samuel is a true wild card due to his significant drop in production last season. As 4for4's John Paulsen pointed out, Samuel followed up a WR3 finish in 2021 with a WR31 finish last year, though he was WR21 on a per-game basis. Paulsen further noted, in five games with likely starting quarterback Brock Purdy, Samuel led the team in targets (6.8 per game), receptions (4.4), and yards (60), so if he can stay healthy, he should find himself back in the top-20. Paulsen also believes head coach Kyle Shanahan will continue to scheme Samuel touches, so he has a pretty stable floor for a receiver.
Fantasy Downside
When Samuel's career is over, that marvelous 2021 campaign will likely be looked back as the best season of his career. What's harder to ascertain is how much he can rebound after last season's down year in which his receiving yardage dropped by more than 50 percent. The 49ers remain committed to using him as a running back at times, and the physicality of the position sometimes adds up. With Christian McCaffrey on the squad, San Francisco could limit those Samuel carries (he averaged 19.7 rushing yards prior to Christian McCaffrey’s arrival, and 15.7 after). Despite his game-breaking speed, Samuel has fewer touchdown receptions than rushing scores.
2023 Bottom Line
Samuel wasn’t happy with how he played in 2022, going as far as calling it “awful” after 98 touches for 864 yards and five touchdowns. It motivated him to report to training camp leaner and meaner. Still, as Fantasy Pros advised their readers, "Without the rushing equity and high-leverage roles to help pad his fantasy production, Samuel dissolved into a WR3." With a strong cast (McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk) vying for touches, Samuel's range of outcomes is wide. Our current ranking (WR18) and ADP (fourth round) sit right about the middle of that range.