Fantasy Upside
D.J. Moore followed up a solid sophomore season with a productive junior year, catching 66 balls for 1,193 yards and four touchdowns, despite a new offense and a new quarterback. He’ll get a new quarterback once again this year, which is nothing new to him. He’s dealt with a revolving door of quarterbacks dating all the way back to his days at Maryland. Moore seems like a high-floor option with over 100 targets and over 1,000 yards very likely, even if Sam Darnold is barely as good as Teddy Bridgewater was last year. Darnold has thrown touchdowns at a better rate than Bridgewater, so there’s some potential for Moore to increase his chances at end zone production as well.
Fantasy Downside
Christian McCaffrey being healthy may siphon off a few targets, but that’s not really much of a concern. Moore had 135 targets in 2019 when McCaffrey was healthy and putting up monster stats. The two real questions with Moore are whether or not Darnold is a big downgrade, and if he can find paydirt. He has only 10 touchdowns through three seasons and if he’s ever going to rise to legit WR1 status, he’ll need to be pushing 8-10 touchdowns per season.
2021 Bottom Line
The most likely scenario is Darnold isn’t a huge downgrade and Moore experiences a modest increase in end zone production. We have him projected for 6.2 touchdowns and have him ranked as a solid WR2, very commensurate with his sixth-round ADP. That sounds about right, and fantasy owners should feel confident they’re getting what they’re paying for with Moore, with just a hair of upside for a breakthrough to elite status.