Fantasy Upside
Drew Brees continues to be an unstoppable fantasy force. He finished 2016 as fantasy's QB3 and as fantasy's No. 16 overall player after throwing for a league-high 5,208 yards and his 37 touchdowns were the third-most. Brees also hasn't missed more than one game due to injury in his career so he remains as durable as ever. The Saints did trade vertical threat Brandin Cooks to the Patriots this offseason, but filled that role with the addition of speedster Ted Ginn Jr. The emergence of Michael Thomas also ensures Brees will have a legitimate No. 1 target in the passing game. Also boosting his stock would be if Coby Fleener has a better grasp of Sean Payton's offense. Finally, the team was aggressive in upgrading its offensive line this offseason, signing free agent guard Larry Warford and drafting tackle Ryan Ramczyk in the first round. Brees, who is outstanding when it comes to setting his protections pre-snap, will be well protected again in 2017.
Fantasy Downside
Brees just turned 38 and, even though he believes he can play until he's 45, the demise of NFL quarterbacks can often be sudden and unpredictable (see: Manning, Peyton). Ginn can still fly at 32, but he has big shoes to fill considering Cooks was targeted 117 times a year ago. The Saints will be forced to replace Cook's 1,173 yards and eight touchdowns from a year ago. Can Ginn fill that role? Can Fleener (50-631-3) be more productive than he was in his first year with the team? Thomas is a stud, but it remains to be seen if Brees' surrounding cast is better than it was last season. Plus, the team signed Adrian Peterson this offseason, which is an indication that Payton wants to find more offensive balance in 2017.
2017 Bottom Line
Even at his age, Brees remains one of the top-five quarterbacks in fantasy. The Saints will also likely struggle again defensively, which means plenty of opportunities for Brees to put the ball in the air. Losing Cooks hurts, but Ginn is a factor and Fleener is a progression candidate. If you want an elite quarterback and don't mind drafting one in the first four rounds (his current ADP is 4.04 in 10-team leagues), Brees is as safe an option as they come.