Fantasy Upside
Arguably no player in the NFL showed as much improvement from the previous season than Jared Goff. Under Jeff Fisher's guidance, Goff looked hopeless as a rookie in 2016. He would throw inaccurately into triple coverage, even when he had time to throw in rhythm, or he'd make pre-determined decisions without reading the defense, which contributed to his inefficiency. He was a mess. Then the Rams hired Sean McVay, gave Goff a better supporting cast (Andrew Whitworth, Robert Woods, Sammy Watkins), and seemingly overnight he went from a potential bust into playoff starter.
From a fantasy perspective, Goff also jumped from QB37 as a rookie all the way up to QB12 in 2017. Heading into 2018, Goff will once again have Woods, Todd Gurley, slot receiver Cooper Kupp, and newcomer Brandin Cooks at his disposal. The key for Goff, however, is McVay, who arguably ran the most quarterback-friendly offense in the NFL last season. If McVay stays ahead of defensive coordinators again this year, Goff could make a jump into the top 10 at the position.
Fantasy Downside
Again, Goff made a huge jump from 2016 to 2017. There's no debate. There's still plenty of room for improvement, however. Goff did have a problem with sacks last year and often threw short of the sticks on third downs. McVay's system produced a lot of yards after catch (YAC) production but if defenses tighten up this season, then Goff's production could suffer. The Rams were also incredibly healthy a year ago and if their offensive line has issues like it did in the Wild Card matchup against the Falcons last year, Goff could suffer a regression as well. The Rams will face a tougher schedule than they did a year ago and while McVay owns one of the most explosive offenses in the league, that doesn't mean Goff is foolproof as a fantasy starter.
2018 Bottom Line
We have Goff ranked as our No. 14 QB heading into the year and that's a perfect spot for him. He's not going to be as good as he was a year ago, facing a tougher schedule and opponents that had an entire season worth of film on McVay's offense. Goff isn't a bad option later in the draft if there's a run on QBs and you fill up on other positions. Just understand that he's more likely in store for a small regression as opposed to another leap.
