Fantasy Upside
Obviously, there are high expectations for Joe Burrow like there are for any quarterback selected in the first round let alone the number one overall pick. The Bengals cleared the way for their franchise quarterback to be their starter by trading away veteran Andy Dalton. Even with the learning curve very steep to be a successful quarterback in the NFL, the Bengals are giving Burrow two things to have a chance to be relevant his rookie season - opportunity and offensive weapons. Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott are success stories as a both were starters Week 1 of their rookie campaigns and ended up being solid fantasy quarterbacks that season. Burrow will get that chance. But he will also be in a position because Cincy's cupboard is not bare. Running back Joe Mixon is considered a top-10 fantasy back, Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green are very good fantasy receivers and John Ross emerged as a passing game option last season with Green out.
Fantasy Downside
We listed Murray and Prescott as success stories, but there is a longer list of rookie quarterbacks that struggled and even with significant playing time, were unable to live up to their hype. This could happen to Burrow despite the opportunities he will have. He will be challenged with an offensive line that is ranked 31st in the NFL by PFF heading into the 2020 season. He will have to face two top defenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice during the season as well as the Browns who have the potential to improve.
2020 Bottom Line
Burrow did everything he needed to do in college to earn that No. 1 pick. The talent level is there and the talent around him will give him a good chance to have a solid rookie season. From a fantasy standpoint, he ranks as a solid QB1. He has higher value in keeper and dynasty leagues as he will eventually be a top-10 fantasy quarterback, But for 2020, his ADP of 125 and as the 15th quarterback coming off the board places him in line with where he ranks this pre-season. He is great backup quarterback to have on your roster as his ceiling is high, but he should not be your fantasy starter Week 1.
