Fantasy Upside
As a top-two pick in most drafts last year, Taylor was a fantasy disappointment. He was limited to 11 games and was the RB18 in half-PPR fantasy points per game. The Colts have changed coaches and quarterbacks (again), so there’s optimism for a better offensive output. If Indianapolis can move the ball even slightly better than they did last year - 29th in third down percentage - then there should be ample opportunity for Taylor to get back to his elite 2021 form.
Fantasy Downside
The new coach and quarterback(s) aren’t necessarily better. While we have to assume Gardner Minshew and Anthony Richardson have to be better than what Matt Ryan did last year - 25th among 31 qualified players in QBR per ESPN - we don’t really know that for certain. Additionally, Taylor’s injuries last year just magnify the fact that the running back position is always ripe for attrition. While he’s still young at 24 years old, he’s been a workhorse dating back to his days in college.
2023 Bottom Line
Taylor very likely will land somewhere between his phenomenal 2021 season and last year’s disappointment. He’s not cheap, going around the 1st/2nd round turn, but that’s far more affordable than his first or second overall ADP from last year. Taylor is worth drafting at cost as the fifth running back in our rankings.