Fantasy Upside
The schedule makers were kind to Justin Herbert, who faces a slate that DraftKings ranked as the most fantasy-friendly for QBs in 2023. That being the case, it's fair to expect big things. Remember, Herbert passed for the most yards in NFL history in a player's first three seasons and the second-most TDs behind only Dan Marino. Since he entered the league in 2020, only Patrick Mahomes (24) has rung the 300-yard bell more times than Herbert (22) and only four QBs had more than his 16 contests with three-plus TDs. RB Austin Ekeler (team-high 107 grabs in 2022), Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Gerald Everett all return and the Chargers drafted TCU WR Quentin Johnston in the first round. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore had the NFL's No. 1 offense in total yards in Dallas in two of the past four years. "Really excited to get to work with him," said Herbert, who had shoulder surgery in January but was on track for training camp.
Fantasy Downside
Last season's QB12 finish was obviously disappointing, but as noted above, a rebound seems likely -- assuming Herbert gets in all the work he needs next month. The Chargers continue to express optimism in finalizing a long-term contract for Herbert during the upcoming window before training camp kicks off. Herbert was recently asked whether he could stage a hold-in during camp if the sides can't hammer out an extension. "When it comes time for camp, the role of the quarterback is to be out there for his team and do everything that he can to put that team in a position to win," he said, via the team's official transcript. "I understand that responsibility. It's something that you'll address when the time comes, but I guess we'll see."
2023 Bottom Line
In an ideal world, one in which he's happy, practicing as usual throughout August and throwing to his impressive array of weapons, Herbert -- with a QB7 ADP -- could actually provide value. As 4for4's John Paulsen suggests, Herbert is "one of a handful of quarterbacks with overall QB1 upside."
