Justin Herbert

Week 4 at Houston Texans

Playing through a significant injury, Justin Herbert had a rough outing against the Jaguars in Week 3. He completed just 25 of his 45 pass attempts for 297 yards, tossing a touchdown and an interception while rushing just once for seven yards. Herbert managed just 12.6 fantasy points, "good" for QB22. Overall, Herbert is still the QB8 for the year.

Herbert should be able to get back to something approaching his usual form in Week 4 against the Texans. He has lost his stud left tackle Rashawn Slater for the year, and Keenan Allen has been ruled out once again. But the Texans are ranked 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks after three weeks. He can be projected as a QB1 for Week 4.

Week 2 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Herbert got off to a flying start to the 2022 campaign in Week 1, helping himself to 279 yards and three passing scores against the Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert finished the day with 23.3 fantasy points, good enough for QB5 on the week.

Herbert could be in for another high-scoring week in Week 2 as the Chargers face off with the Chiefs, an opponent that Herbert usually does well against. He averages 283 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game against them so far in his career. The Chiefs allowed 20.6 fantasy points to Kyler Murray in Week 1, and even if Keenan Allen can't play on Thursday night Herbert should still be classed as a high-end QB1 this week.

2022 Fantasy Upside
As coach of one of the league's top young quarterbacks, one of Brandon Staley's most important tasks is to make sure Justin Herbert's trajectory keeps pointing up. To that end, Staley believes continuity in the offensive system will help the quarterback's comfort. He'll also have a better understanding of defenses after two seasons as a starter. Another factor working in Herbert's favor is that he'll have continuity within the offensive coaching staff in 2021. Joe Lombardi returns as the Chargers' offensive coordinator and Shane Day is the team's passing game coordinator/QBs coach. While Herbert already appears to be on track to continue developing into an elite quarterback, the team's willingness to keep the top end of his receiving corps intact -- specifically, retaining free-agent receiver Mike Williams to continue working alongside Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler -- adds to Herbert's fantasy value. So does the QB's willingness to lean on his mobility when opportunities arise.

2022 Fantasy Downside
According to ESPN's Mike Clay, defensive enhancements could lead to less late-game throwing from Herbert this season, but the Chargers operated the game-script-adjusted fourth-pass-heaviest offense last season, and a loaded AFC will mean plenty of close games.

2022 Bottom Line
Herbert finished no worse than third among all NFL QBs in pass attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns and fantasy points last season. He also ranked in the top 10 in carries, rushing yards and rushing TDs among all QBs. There's no reason to believe any of this changes materially this season. Draft accordingly.