Justin Jefferson

Week 2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Are you not entertained? If Justin Jefferson drafters were allowed to script Week 1 it might have looked exactly as it played out on Sunday. Jefferson incinerated the Packers defense all day, starting on the opening drive when he caught three passes for 47 yards and a five-yard touchdown where he was put in pre-snap motion and ran a simple route in the flat to walk into the endzone. Later in the half, Jefferson found himself running free downfield and managed to shake a defender before diving into the endzone for a 36-yard touchdown. And that's not even mentioning the several other chunk gains Jefferson was responsible for throughout the game. In the end, Jefferson finished with a week-winning 9-184-2 line to kick off the 2022 season. Kevin O'Connell pledged to move Jefferson around the formation to get the ball in his best player's hands as much as possible in the offseason, and Week 1 gave every indication he intends to follow through. The Eagles just gave up 35 points to Jared Goff and the Lions in Week 1, suggesting they have little chance of slowing down Jefferson this week. Start him with confidence as a strong candidate to again finish as the week's top wide receiver.

2022 Fantasy Upside
Justin Jefferson's production through his first two NFL seasons is historic. His 196 catches and 3,016 receiving yards through two seasons are the most ever to start a WR's career. In 2021, Jefferson posted a 30% target share while leading the league in air yards (1,996), air yard share (43.9%), and deep targets (34). He finished sixth at the position in yards per route run at 2.76. In other words, Jefferson is incredibly efficient as a receiver and the result is a fourth-place finish in fantasy points per game amongst all WRs in 2021 at 19.4. Take Jefferson's demonstrated track record of success and now combine it with a new coaching staff that appears intent on maximizing his talents even further. Kevin O'Connell will take over as Head Coach for Mike Zimmer, whose conservative tendencies resulted in a run-first offense behind Dalvin Cook. O'Connell has already commented on his intent to move Jefferson around the team's formations and utilize him in the slot, a spot he excelled in at LSU. Given his track record through only two NFL seasons, a more pass-heavy offense would elevate Jefferson's fantasy ceiling to new heights. Jefferson would be a WR1 regardless, but the coaching changes this offseason have him in contention for the top WR in all of fantasy and in position to be a top-five pick in drafts.

2022 Fantasy Downside
There really isn't much downside to talk about with Jefferson for fantasy purposes. His first two NFL seasons have been smashing successes and he has remained healthy and a near every-snap player to this point in his career. You could nitpick about the fact that he has Kirk Cousins at QB, but Jefferson and Cousins have established a solid rapport. While Cousins may not be an elite QB, he is certainly capable of compiling enough statistical production to support Jefferson's lofty ADP.

2022 Bottom Line
Jefferson is poised to be one of fantasy's top WRs again this season. He has established himself as one of the game's most talented receivers and now has a more aggressive coaching staff to work with. Jefferson is worthy of selection in the mid-first round of drafts and has an argument to be the top WR off the board.

Week 16 vs. Rams

Justin Jefferson is an elite WR1 every week, finishing in the Top-12 in seven games this season. Jefferson has over 45 percent of the air yard share with a 28% target share. That's elite usage for one of the most talented wideouts in the game. Jefferson is currently WR5 on the season.

He has a good chance to hit his ceiling in a projected shootout against a Rams defense that ranks 19th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game. The Vikings will likely have to air it out to keep pace, which bodes well for Jefferson.