Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Week 13 Scouting Report

Justin Jefferson
WR
, Minnesota Vikings

Age: 25
Weight: 195 lbs
Height: 6' 1"
College: LSU

ADP: 8
Depth Chart Ranking: 1

Pts	RecYds	RecTD	Rec	RuYds
125.1	939	5	61	3

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Scouting report

by Frank Ammirante

· Oct 14, 2021 · 12:10 PM EDT

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 6 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 6 at Panthers

Jefferson turned in another strong performance against the Lions, catching 7-of-8 targets for 124 yards. He's now racked up 80+ yards in three consecutive games, including two 100-yard games during that stretch. Jefferson has a target share over four percent greater than teammate Adam Thielen. The second-year wideout is the clear-cut top option in this offense.

Jefferson goes up against a Panthers defense that ranks 6th in aFPA to wide receivers, but his alpha usage helps mitigate the risk with the tough matchup. Jefferson ranks 21st in target share and 6th in air yard share. There's always a chance that he can get loose downfield, even in tough matchups. Jefferson is an every-week WR1.

by Frank Ammirante

· Oct 08, 2021 · 10:21 AM EDT

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 5 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 5 vs. Lions

Jefferson currently ranks as WR7 in half-PPR formats, picking up right where he left off last season. He's put up a 42.84% air yard share (9th) and 24.18% target share (30th), establishing himself as the alpha in this offense. While there's always risk that the Vikings go run-heavy in certain games, you have to love the way the target share is condensed between Jefferson and veteran Adam Thielen.

Jefferson is in a smash spot against a Lions defense that ranks 15th in aFPA, but 30th in pass DVOA while giving up 11.52 yards per target (32nd). There's a good chance that he can get loose downfield against this susceptible secondary. The only risk is that the Vikings control the game as 9-point favorites, feeding Dalvin Cook (and possibly Alexander Mattison), but we need to consider Jefferson as an elite WR1.

by Frank Ammirante

· Oct 01, 2021 · 10:42 AM EDT

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 4 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 4 vs. Browns

Jefferson is coming off a breakout game against the Seahawks where he caught 9-of-11 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. Jefferson leads the Vikings in air yard share (47.17%) and target share (25.64%). You have to love the way he dominates the air yards on this team. He should be considered as a borderline Top-5 wideout going forward, especially with Cousins playing so well.

Jefferson faces a Browns defense that ranks 9th in aFPA, but this isn't a matchup to fear. This team gave up big games to Tyreek Hill (11 REC, 197 YDS, 1 TD) and Brandin Cooks (9 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD), so we could see the same with Jefferson. We could see Jefferson hit his ceiling in this projected shootout.

by Frank Ammirante

· Sep 24, 2021 · 10:39 AM EDT

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 3 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 3 vs. Seahawks

Jefferson has gotten off to a bit of a slow start so far this season, catching 11-of-19 targets for 136 yards and a touchdown. However, Jefferson still leads the team with 248 air yards (47.97% share) and a 24.05% target share. Jefferson's 13.1 average target depth gives him a massive weekly ceiling. We haven't seen his spike week yet and there's a decent chance that this could be the week against the Seahawks.

The Seahawks just gave up six receptions for 128 yards to Julio Jones. This defense is now allowing 8.68 yards per target to wideouts, which ranks 21st in the NFL. This projects as a close game with tons of points, so we can consider Jefferson a high-upside WR1 in this spot. He should be able to get loose downfield against this susceptible secondary.

by Frank Ammirante

· Sep 16, 2021 · 11:25 AM EDT

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 2 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 2 @ Cardinals
Jefferson had a modest season debut, catching 5-of-9 targets for 71 yards against the Bengals. It was good to see the second-year superstar wideout put up 124 air yards, leading Adam Thielen by 51. Jefferson remains a WR1 with high upside due to his high volume and big-play ability. You have to love how narrowly distributed the Vikings' target share is among their two stud wideouts.

Jefferson takes on a Cardinals defense that ranked 15th in aFPA to wide receivers last season, but their secondary remains the weakest link on their defense. Starting cornerbacks Robert Alford and Byron Murphy aren't really matchups to fear. The Titans weren't able to exploit this weakness with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones because the team struggled with pass protection. If the Vikings can give Cousins a clean pocket, which is a tough task against Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt, we could see Jefferson get loose downfield.

by Frank Ammirante

· Sep 10, 2021 · 10:48 AM EDT

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 at Cincinnati Bengals

Justin Jefferson has a chance to hit his weekly ceiling against the Bengals here. This is a defense that ranked 20th in aFPA to wide receivers last season and will be without starting cornerback Trae Waynes for this game. Jefferson had one of the best rookie seasons for a wideout we’ve ever seen, establishing himself as the clear alpha in this offense. From Weeks 3-17, he led the team with a 27.23% target share. We can expect more of the same in his second season.

The risk with Jefferson is the potential game script here. Since the Bengals are also weak against the run and the Vikings are a run-heavy offense, we could see the offense revolve around Dalvin Cook here. This could limit Jefferson’s ceiling in this game. At the same time, Jefferson is a big-play threat who can take it to the endzone on any play, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a run-heavy approach. Fire him the sophomore wideout as a Top-7 option this week.

by Frank Ammirante

· Jul 27, 2021 · 11:24 AM EDT

MIN WR Justin Jefferson - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Jefferson caught 88-of-125 targets for 1,400 yards (15.9 Y/R) and seven touchdowns in what was one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons of all time. Jefferson finished as WR9 in half-PPR points per game, which is even more impressive when you consider that 12.5% target share in the first two games of the season. From Weeks 3-17, Jefferson put up a 27.23% target share, which would have ranked 6th in the NFL. This is a superstar wide receiver who has the ability to finish as the WR1 overall. In order for that to happen, he would have to command even more of a target share in Year 2, which is absolutely within reach. He would also need the Vikings' defense to allow for more pass-heavy game scripts. Even if this doesn’t happen, Jefferson should be able to finish in the Top-8 wide receivers.

Fantasy Downside
The downside with Jefferson is that this is a run-heavy offense and Adam Thielen can still command targets, especially due to his symbiotic chemistry with quarterback Kirk Cousins. If the Vikings' defense improves dramatically, this could cause them to become even more run-heavy. This would affect Jefferson’s total targets, which could ultimately prevent him from providing value at his current draft cost. Still, Jefferson put up the best rookie season since Odell Beckham Jr. He’s the best receiver on this team and should be able to command the most targets, which helps mitigate the risk posed by the run-heavy philosophy.

Bottom Line
Jefferson is currently being drafted as WR8 (23.8 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues. He has as much upside as any receiver in the NFL. Targets are earned and Jefferson was able to command a 25% target share, which is a huge total for a rookie. Expect this young superstar to evolve into even more of an alpha wide receiver and rank among the league leaders in target share. There’s also untapped touchdown upside here, as Jefferson only scored seven times in his rookie season. Consider him an elite WR1 heading into his second year.