Matthew Stafford Preseason Preview
Fantasy Upside
For the fifth straight season, Matthew Stafford not only didn’t miss a game, but he also threw for at least 4,200 yards. While he passed for just five more yards on 10 fewer attempts in 2015 than 2014, he increased his TD total from 22 to 32 and threw just one more pick (13 versus 12). The 32 touchdowns were tied for seventh best in the league and the most Matthew’s thrown for since his career-high of 41 in ’11. His 67 percent completion rate was a career-high. Stafford finished the season strong, tossing eight TDs and no INTs over the final three contests, all Detroit wins.
Fantasy Downside
No longer will Stafford be able to rely on the jump ball and red zone opportunities to Calvin Johnson. Without Megatron, the Lions will almost assuredly continue to establish some type of ground game, which was dead last in the NFL last season at just 83 yards per game. One indication is last season’s 592 pass attempts were the lowest Matthew has had when playing a complete season.
Bottom Line
With Johnson, Stafford has been the definition of consistency over the past five seasons. While he only had three 300-yard games last season, he threw for at least 220 yards in all but three contests and has averaged 29 TDs per year during the past five. However, his numbers may take a dip in ‘16, potentially early on, without his main target. Matthew will need to build a rapport with off-season signee Marvin Jones, but he’s a nice option at 6’2”. Look for Jones to take over Johnson’s role inside the red zone. With OC Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford generated the most consistent rhythm of his career during the second half of last season. It appears Stafford plateaued in 2011 when he threw for over 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. While a season like that won’t happen in ’16, he is still a very reliable and durable fantasy QB. We have him slated at No. 16 for his position, making him a low-end starter or, at worst, a high No. 2 option.