Fantasy Upside
Even during what many considered a second consecutive off year for Matthew Stafford, he still threw for over 4,600 yards and 29 TDs. Former Saints QB coach Joe Lombardi takes over as the Lions offensive coordinator, which should lead to a better season for Matthew. And, new coach Jim Caldwell is taking steps to improve the QB’s footwork, throwing motion and mechanics. Entering his sixth season with the club, Stafford has embraced the new philosophy after the past two seasons that led to him regressing. You know the capability is there, after he threw for 5,000 yards and 41 scores in ’11. He threw for over 300 yards six times in ’13.
Fantasy Downside
It’s no surprise that Stafford’s mechanics, namely sloppy footwork, have come under scrutiny as his passing numbers have dropped after that incredible ’11 season. He completed just 58.5 percent of his passes last year, the lowest since his rookie season. But, Stafford wasn’t the only one to blame for the decline, as Lions pass catchers had 46 drops – 10 more than any other NFL team. He did throw 19 picks, one off of his career-high of 20 in ’09. In the final four games last season (all losses), the most yards he threw for was just 235. When Calvin Johnson wasn’t in the lineup, Stafford and the Lions were a completely different team.
Bottom Line
Despite being inconsistent at times, Stafford has finished in the top 10 at his position in each of the last three seasons. Now that he has a coaching staff that has been dedicated to refining his technique and has an improved arsenal of weapons with the addition of free agent Golden Tate and rookie TE Eric Ebron, look for the Detroit QB to have increased accuracy and a lower interception rate in ‘14. Lombardi has been known to rely on the run game a bit more, however Matthew should be a great fantasy option if you want to wait until the top-three are off the board and select him toward the middle rounds of your draft. Heading into the season, Stafford is the fifth-ranked QB, comparable to second-tier QBs such as Nick Foles and Andrew Luck. Having Megatron as a primary target always gives him a chance to have a huge weekly output.
