Fantasy Upside
Alex Smith is gone, which means Patrick Mahomes will take over as Kansas City’s starter this season. The second-year quarterback has a strong arm and plenty of talent around him. The supporting cast of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Kareem Hunt helped Smith become the fourth-highest scoring QB in fantasy last season. And the Chiefs even added speedster Sammy Watkins to the mix, which should make for a solid offensive group.
Fantasy Downside
While Mahomes isn’t technically a rookie, we can sort of view him as one since he doesn’t have a full season of playing under his belt. Rookie QBs have a hard time producing at a high level, as 34 out of 48 first-round QBs drafted since 2000 have failed to rank above 15 in total fantasy points. Obviously, Mahomes factors into that stat, so the numbers aren’t perfect, but it just gives you an idea of what to expect from a first-year QB.
2018 Bottom Line
There’s a lot to be excited about with Mahomes. He’s a great talent, who has even better talent around him, and a solid coaching staff with Andy Reid leading the way. He’s available in the later rounds, making him a solid sleeper choice for those wanting to wait on a quarterback. Mahomes has a very high ceiling in 2018, but it’s also important to not let your expectations run wild.