Raheem Mostert

Week 4 at Buffalo Bills

Raheem Mostert had a ridiculous game last week as he ran 13 times for 83 yards with three touchdowns on the ground. As a receiver, he caught seven passes for 60 yards with a touchdown. Mostert has now scored seven total touchdowns through the first three games of the season with an average of over 100 scrimmage yards per game. He's currently the RB1 in all scoring settings. His production could slow down a bit this week, though, as he faces a tough matchup against the Bills. Buffalo hasn't allowed a rushing or receiving touchdown to a running back so far this season. Although with Jeff Wilson still sidelined on IR, and with Mostert's production so far, the matchup doesn't concern us too much. Mostert should be viewed as a strong RB1 play in Week 4.

Week 2 at New England Patriots

As expected, Raheem Mostert owned the Dolphins' backfield to start the season. He ran 10 times for 37 yards with a touchdown while catching both of his two targets for 13 yards. Mostert played on 73% of the offensive snaps, which was the most among any RB or WR on the team. Mostert should once again play a heavy workload in Week 2 since Jeff Wilson is still out and Devon Achane was randomly inactive. Mostert faces the Patriots in Week 2, a team he played twice last season. In the second game of 2022, Mostert caught eight passes for 62 yards and a touchdown. We wouldn't expect that again, but it's promising to know Mostert had some success against this team. Mostert should be viewed as a solid RB2 option this week.

Fantasy Upside
Raheem Mostert had a solid first season with Miami, topping 1,000 scrimmage yards (1,093 to be exact) in a season for the first time in his career. Mostert had a career-high 181 carries for 891 yards for a solid 4.9 carry average. He was solid as a receiving threat as well, catching 31 passes for 202 yards. Mostert only signed a one-year deal in 2022, but his production led Miami to sign him to another deal so he’ll be staying in 2023. Given his production last year, Mostert should still maintain a sizable role in Miami’s offense.

Fantasy Downside
Mostert started to see his touches decline last season when Jeff Wilson was brought in at the trade deadline. Wilson played his first game in Week 9 and in the eight games after, Mostert saw 10+ carries just three times (compared to six times in the eight games prior). Not only is Wilson back this season, but Miami also spent one of their four draft picks on a promising rookie in Devon Achane. All three backs are likely to see a solid chunk of playing time this season, which means touches overall could be tough to come by.

2023 Bottom Line
Our current projections have Mostert being Miami’s primary ball carrier this season. He’ll likely lead the team in rush attempts and rush yards with little usage as a receiving threat. In terms of fantasy points, we’re projecting Achane to be the better option there given his versatility. The gap closes a lot more when it comes to standard scoring. Mostert still has some of the best speed among running backs in the league, so he’ll likely have a few breakout games if he’s able to break off a big run. But on a week-to-week basis, he’ll likely put up low-end RB3 numbers, especially given his lack of touchdowns. He should be viewed in the RB40-RB50 range as a late-round flier.