Fantasy Upside
With Tony Pollard struggling to match his previous efficiency in his first year as a No. 1 option, Dowdle began to see the field more in the second half of last season, receiving double-digit opportunities (rushes + targets) on three occasions from Week 10-18. He scored at least 11 half-PPR fantasy points in each of those games and was the incumbent RB1 until the team signed Ezekiel Elliott. The veteran has looked like "two yards and a cloud of dust" as he approaches the twilight of his career, which could eventually re-place Dowdle as the RB1 on a team projected to score the eighth-most points in the league.
Fantasy Downside
Elliott has looked far below average as a rusher over the last couple of years, but Dowdle had never been given a chance on an NFL field prior to Pollard's moderate collapse in 2023. Elliott has familiarity with the organization and head coach Mike McCarthy, making it a real possibility that the RB split could be a more traditional 60/40 division, with the recent Patriot handling the majority of the snaps. On a team that isn't looking to run the ball in the first place, Dowdle would be wiped off of fantasy radars.
2024 Bottom Line
If Dowdle can usurp (or maintain?) the goal-line role from Elliott, he has the potential to return RB3 value —with RB2 weeks— at a heavily discounted draft cost. It seems unlikely that Elliott will step in and be the unquestioned No. 1 option in this committee, but it also seemed unlikely that the team would bring him in after balking on the position during the NFL Draft, so who's to say? Dowdle could be a headache to roster on redraft leagues but is going late enough that he's worth a flier.
