Rob Gronkowski

Week 4 at New England Patriots

UPDATE: Gronk is officially out this week against the Patriots, so don't put him in your fantasy lineups.

Rob Gronkowski's two-touchdowns per-game streak ended, but that was expected. Gronk was still productive, finishing 4-55 on seven targets despite missing a lot of action with a rib injury. Gronk ended up playing on 62% of the offensive snaps, the first time he dipped below 80% this season. Gronk has been missing Bucs' practice this week as a result of the injury, but NFL Network is reporting there's "no way" he misses the revenge game against the Patriots in Week 4. Although the injury is concerning, and Gronk gets a really tough matchup against the Patriots this week who have only allowed four receptions for 27 yards and no touchdowns so far to tight ends through three games this season. We still like Gronk as a TE1 play this week, but his injury and the matchup make him a somewhat risky play. If Gronk's injury is too much, expect Cameron Brate to step up as the primary option.

Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons

Rob Gronkowski is still here, and he's doing much more than blocking in the Bucs offense. Gronk started the year with an 8-90-2 stat line on eight targets. The return of O.J. Howard was essentially non-existent as Howard only played six total snaps. In fact, Cameron Brate out-played Howard by appearing in 18 offensive snaps. We thought Howard would have a bigger role after returning from injury, but it's clear Gronk is the only tight end worth caring about in this offense. He should be viewed as a top 10 tight end heading into his Week 2 matchup against the Falcons.

Fantasy Upside
Rob Gronkowski got off to a slow start last season but started to pick things up as he continued his first year back from retirement. From Week 5 on, Gronkowski averaged 5.3 targets per game and scored seven touchdowns, finishing as the No. 8 scoring tight end (half-PPR).

Fantasy Downside
Gronkowski was very touchdown-dependent for his fantasy scoring as he averaged just 38.9 yards per game in 2020, his lowest mark since his rookie season. He also set a career-low in catch percentage (58.4%) meaning he wasn’t converting his targets into catches. With O.J. Howard back and healthy this season, along with Antonio Brown playing a full year and the arrival of Giovani Bernard, it’s hard to see Gronk getting the same volume of targets as last year. And if his catch percentage remains low, it’ll be really tough for Gronk to put up fantasy points consistently.

2021 Bottom Line
Howard’s return to the lineup is likely going to be bad news for Gronk. We’re expecting lower total numbers for Gronk this season in receptions, yards and touchdowns despite the fact there’s an extra game on the schedule. This is an offense loaded with talent, and we’d expect Gronk to play more of a blocking role with an occasional catch or two each game. We have Gronk ranked around TE20 for this season, making him a bad value given his ADP.