Fantasy Upside
Packers tight end Robert Tonyan, a former undrafted free agent, broke out in 2020 to the tune of 52 receptions for 586 yards and 11 touchdowns. That was good for a fantasy finish as the third-best half-PPR tight end last season and top-five in points per game. The man known as “Big Bob” put up big boy numbers as a prime red-zone target for Green Bay (16.4% target share inside the opposing 20-yard line), hauling in 10-of-11 targets, including seven touchdowns. He showed his versatility, however, by catching six of his nine deep (20-plus air yards) targets for 186 yards and his other four scores.
Fantasy Downside
Tonyan’s overall target rate (targets per route run) of 18.0% was just 89th among qualifying tight ends, and even his 12.9% team target share was just barely inside the top-20. To sustain TE1-level fantasy productivity into 2021, Tonyan will need to increase the volume of looks he’s earning or keep up his absurd scoring rate – the latter of which will almost surely regress downward. Physical possession receiver Devin Funchess – who opted out for the 2020 season – may end up cutting into his valuable goal-line targets as well.
2021 Bottom Line
The Packers will likely continue to need Tonyan’s red-zone contributions, and his skill set is versatile enough that he likely won’t fall completely off the map, but tempered expectations are needed for the sequel to Tonyan’s sensational 2020 season. Our models project him as the TE9, in a flat tier from ninth to twelfth at the position, and ADP shows im drafted in a similar range. You can do way worse than a red-zone monster tied to one of the best offenses in the league as your low-end TE1 when drafting them in the ninth to tenth rounds of your fantasy draft.
