Russell Wilson

2023 Fantasy Upside
There will likely be skepticism regarding Russell Wilson's continued fantasy viability given the abject disaster that was the Broncos offense last season. Wilson himself looked terrible for the majority of the season before stringing together some decent performances in December. That being said, Wilson will receive a major coaching upgrade with the arrival of Sean Payton in Denver, which provides some hope for a bounce back season in 2023. Payton is one of the better offensive minds in the current NFL era, and there are some reasons for optimism when looking at a merger of he and Wilson's track records. Wilson has some decent weapons to work with as well, particularly Jerry Jeudy, who showed a nice connection with Wilson at the end of last year and emerged as a legitimate No. 1 option in the passing game. Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich round out a workable supporting cast, and the Broncos added Samaje Perine as a receiving option out of the backfield this offseason. Betting on Wilson in fantasy is inherently a bet on Payton's ability to right the ship to some extent, but there are reasons for optimism coming off last year's nightmare.

2023 Fantasy Downside
Wilson's 2022 metrics are a sea of red flags for fantasy, and he will turn 35 years old during this coming season. Wilson's 7.3 yards per attempt was the second-worst of his career, his 60.5% completion percentage was the worst he's ever posted, and his 16 passing touchdowns was also easily a career-low. Instead of competing for a Super Bowl berth, the Broncos averaged 16.9 points per game, good for last in the NFL, and subjected fans to enough three-and-outs to make their eyes bleed. Wilson's age is also affecting his mobility. He has not cleared 300 rushing yards either of the last two seasons, and he took 55 sacks last year for a league-leading 368 yards lost. Perhaps most concerning was Wilson's drop in accuracy, particularly on deep throws. Wilson attempted 87 deep passes in 2022 which led the league, but his accuracy rating on those throws ranked 28th amongst QBs. The drop-off in efficiency last year was startling, and it should probably be expected to bounce back to some extent this year, but we wouldn't blame anyone for being out on Wilson as a QB1 given his recent decline in overall play.

2023 Bottom Line
Wilson's play should improve to some extent just due to positive regression and having a competent NFL Head Coach and play caller on the sidelines. However, it is clear Wilson is now past his prime and last year's performance was very concerning on a number of fronts. Wilson's suddenly nosediving efficiency as a passer renders him as nothing more than a QB2 for fantasy until we see signs of life with Payton at the helm.

Week 16 at Los Angeles Rams
The Broncos secured a win last week with Russell Wilson inactive largely due to the good fortune of getting to face a Cardinals' team that just lost Kyler Murray for the year, and therefore had to rely on a combination of Colt McCoy and Trace McSorley under center. Wilson looks set to return in Week 16 for a road matchup against the reeling Rams, who have been devastated by injuries this season. Wilson had his best game of the season in Week 14 before suffering a concussion, but the fact remains his overall play this season has been exceedingly poor. He currently ranks 15th at his position with 7.1 yards per attempt, but has only thrown 11 touchdowns on the year, which ranks 26th in the NFL. The Rams are having a down season, but their defense still ranks slightly above average in terms of slowing opposing passing games. Wilson is no more than a mediocre QB2 this week and should be avoided as a starter if possible.

Week 13 at Baltimore Ravens
Russell Wilson had an impressively bad game in Week 12. Wilson somehow managed only 142 yards on 35 attempts, barely eclipsing the 4.0 YPA mark. He entered the second half with 53 scoreless yards. His only touchdown of the day came in garbage time when the Panthers were simply trying to run out the clock (and was largely the product of a roughing the passer penalty on fourth down). There really isn't much left to say about Wilson at this point besides pointing out the obvious: he is having a terrible season and the Broncos' offense is bordering on useless for fantasy purposes. The offense's ineptitude boiled over on the sidelines last week as a Broncos defender was seen screaming at Wilson as they passed each other after a change of possession. A Week 13 matchup on the road in Baltimore is unlikely to bring Wilson, or Denver's fans, any relief. Wilson is irrelevant for fantasy outside of deep superflex leagues, an astonishing thing to write in 2022.