Fantasy Upside
Despite playing only 13 games as a rookie in 2015, Todd Gurley finished as fantasy’s RB5 thanks to his 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns on 229 carries. That production enticed plenty of fantasy owners to select him with a top five pick, but Gurley and the Rams offense struggled mightily. The team had two major issues a year ago, both of which may have been corrected. The first problem was Jeff Fisher, who struggled year-after-year to field a competitive offense. Gone is Fisher, fired midseason last year, and in is Sean McVay, one of the more creative young offensive minds in football. The other huge issue that impacted the Rams as a whole, and Gurley individually, is that the offensive line was dreadful. The team upgraded its left tackle spot by signing free agent Andrew Whitworth to replace mega-bust Greg Robinson. The presence of McVay and Whitworth alone is enough to provide optimism that Gurley is headed for a bounce back season. He also remains the centerpiece of the Rams’ offense.
Fantasy Downside
Gurley was one of the biggest fantasy busts in the league last season and it wasn’t all due to Fisher’s incompetence and an offensive line that couldn’t open holes in the run game. Even dating back to his breakout rookie season, Gurley wasn’t breaking off long runs and was often bottled up. Last year, his longest run was only 24 yards. He finished with just 885 yards on 278 carries, good for a paltry 3.2-yards-per-carry average. Plus, while Whitworth provides a significant upgrade at left tackle, the Rams still have plenty of question marks along the rest of their offensive line. Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan have extensive injury history, Rob Havenstein is switching to guard after spending two seasons at right tackle, and Jamon Brown is kicking outside to tackle after he was drafted as a guard. If QB Jared Goff doesn’t make strides in his development, defenses will once again stack the box to stop Gurley.
2017 Bottom Line
Improvements in play-calling and along the offensive line provide optimism that Gurley will bounce back from his disastrous 2016 campaign. That said, which Todd Gurley will fantasy owners get this season? Will it be the 2015 version or the one that finished as RB20 in 2016 despite being a top-5 pick? In our pre-season rankings, Gurley is our RB16 and his current ADP in 10-team leagues is 2.08. The good news for fantasy owners that are willing to roll the dice on Gurley is that the carries will be there. The Rams are devoid of talent at the skill positions, so Gurley will again be the centerpiece of the offense. As a late second round pick, he might be worth the gamble in standard formats. That said, in PPR leagues, it’s recommended to wait until the third round before targeting a running back that didn’t catch many passes in his first two seasons.
