Fantasy Upside
Trey McBride started out the 2023 season yet again behind veteran Zach Ertz, earning less than 35 yards in six of his first seven games. The gloves were off after the veteran went down though, with the sophomore TE logging a 14-target Week 8 and going on to finish the rest of the season as fantasy's overall TE4. The progress blocker is now out of town, and McBride has a chance to stick near the top of the league's TE target share after commanding a whopping 25.8% mark after Ertz's departure from the lineup. Even regressing around a 20% share would make him one of the most-targeted options in the NFL.
Fantasy Downside
The Cardinals spent the fourth overall selection on a pass-catcher (Marvin Harrison Jr.) and another RB weapon in the third round of the NFL Draft. Though the team lost Hollywood Brown in free agency, Harrison offers Kyler Murray a consistent target in all areas of the field and is more or less guaranteed to take a chunk out of McBride's dominant target share. How much of last season's production was McBride earning looks, and how much of it was a lack of above-average options at the quarterbacks' disposal?
2024 Bottom Line
With how massive McBride's target total was in the second half of last season (six games with 8+), we could see that drop quite a bit and still keep him locked in as a consistent, high-end TE1 option in 2024. There's also a far better projectable touchdown outcome after he scored only three last season. The offense as a whole will look like a whole new team with a deeper set of skill position players and a healthy Kyler Murray, which bolsters McBride's bottom line and makes him a top-five or six option heading into 2024.