Fantasy Upside
There was talk early in camp that rookie Tre Mason could compete for a starting job in St. Louis' backfield but Stacy remains "the guy" for the Rams. Once he emerged as the starter last season, the Rams ditched their plans to be a spread offense and went back to Jeff Fisher's roots, which is pounding the ball on the ground. (The team's offensive transformation happened before Sam Bradford suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 7.) Despite receiving just 250 carries, Stacy (973) nearly rushed for 1,000 yards in his rookie campaign and also reached paydirt seven times. He wasn't a huge factor in the passing game but added 26 catches for 141 yards and a score through the air as well. Mason and Benny Cunningham will eat into Stacy's carries this season but the Rams could average 30-plus rushing attempts a game and thus, there will be plenty of carries to go around.
Fantasy Downside
While some owners focus on Cunningham and Mason potentially stealing carries, the bigger underlying concern for Stacy is that he's a physical runner and is prone to getting nicked up. He suffered a hip injury towards the end of the season last year and also suffered a concussion in a Week 12 win over the Bears. Granted, he didn't wind up missing any time but given his physical nature, Stacy owners may have to hold their breath from time to time when it comes to injuries.
Bottom Line
Stacy ranks as our 12th RB in standard and 14th RB in PPR formats heading into the 2014 season. He's going in the third round in both leagues despite being a solid, low-end RB1. He's going to get plenty of carries in the Rams' run-first offense and despite the presence of guys like Mason and Cunningham, he's an established starter that the team is going to lean on to set the tone of the offense. While he could see more eight-men in the box following Sam Bradford's season-ending injury, the fact remains that the Rams are going to lean heavily on Stacy and their running game this year. Draft him with confidence.