Fantasy Upside
After a slow first half of the season, Zach Ertz came on strong in the second half, but especially his final four games. Over those last four contests, Ertz averaged a line of about 9-112. He seemed to develop a nice chemistry with QB Sam Bradford and, coincidentally, Bradford was playing well over that same stretch. As Doug Pederson takes over with a new offense, Ertz could end up with a Travis Kelce-like role, which wouldn't be a bad thing. There aren't a lot of talented WRs on the Eagles, so Ertz should see plenty of opportunities and targets, especially in the red zone.
Fantasy Downside
Ertz only produced two TDs last season so he wasn't necessarily a red zone target, but his TD numbers should climb if his last four games are any indication. Ertz was supposed to be a breakout candidate the last two seasons, but never got on track in 2014 and had a slow start in 2015. One has to wonder if last year's second half was a fluke or we're seeing the real Ertz. The Eagles also resigned Brent Celek, who would always surprise at times stealing away catches and playing time. Celek is a superior blocker to Ertz, which can limit Ertz's time on the field.
Bottom Line
Ertz showed a lot last season, especially during the second half. However, in the back of my mind I still have a little fear he'll disappear like he did at times during the last two seasons. Still, I don't think it's enough to prevent me from taking him in the right spot. His ADP is the eighth round, which is 1-2 rounds after guys in the top-six like Kelce and Coby Fleener, but in the ballpark with Ladarius Green and Julius Thomas. To me, this is a perfect spot to land Ertz and given the lack of top-notch WRs on the Eagles, Ertz should provide a lot of value.