Josh Allen

Fantasy Upside
Josh Allen once again proved why he should be perenially considered a very serious option as the most important fantasy asset in the NFL. In the process of accruing the fourth-most dropbacks in the league, he also accounted for 15 rushing touchdowns, bringing his total scores to 44, just one year removed from accounting for 42 total touchdowns. Even though he's lost some firepower in the receiving department, his goal-line work is rivaled only by Jalen Hurts and his Tush Push. Allen's career-low in rushing TDs (6) would have ranked third among all quarterbacks in 2023, which gives us an idea of what his floor is.

Fantasy Downside
The Buffalo Bills wide receiver room is nowhere near as talented as it was one short season ago. Though the Gabe Davis loss could be replicated by other names, no one on this team is even close to as talented as Stefon Diggs is as a route runner. The heir apparent to the WR1 role, Keon Coleman, profiles as more of a big-bodied slot receiver than a do-it-all stud like Diggs, while Curtis Samuel —who could easily lead the WRs in most raw counting stats— has been closer to a gadget player than a fleshed out WR1 in his seven-year career. The top-end week-to-week outcomes for Josh Allen are limited by his receiving options.

2024 Bottom Line
Josh Allen's legs make him a target in and of itself, but a weaker receiving corps, paired with OC Joe Brady's less pass-heavy attack, could put a squeeze on his passing numbers. This doesn't make him a fade in fantasy by any means, but if you're in multiple leagues, it might be wise to see if he slides a little past ADP before taking the plunge.

Week 16 at Los Angeles Chargers
A very strange (and unproductive) fantasy day for Josh Allen. The Bills offense was dominating even though he only threw 15 passes which produced 96 passing yards. He also only had 24 rushing yards, but he did throw a TD pass and ran for another score. Allen also ended his interception streak at nine straight games as he didn't turn the ball over.

Allen will face the Chargers who are ranked 25th in aFPA to quarterbacks. The Bills ran the ball at will last week against Dallas and would love to do that every week. But we think Allen will get back to throwing the ball 30-35 times and his numbers will be back to normal.

Start Allen as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks for Week 16. It's a good matchup for him against a below-average defense and we will gamble that Buffalo will be throwing the ball a lot more than last game.

Week 14 at Kansas City Chiefs
Josh Allen comes off the bye week as the Bills are trying to reset. He threw the ball 51 times in the overtime loss to the Eagles. Ended up with 339 yards and two touchdown passes. But where he really scored for his managers was running the football for a season-high 81 yards and two rushing touchdowns. However, his interception streak continues.

Allen faces the Chiefs who are ranked 17th in aFPA to quarterbacks. He dominated Kansas City last season throwing for 329 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover.

Start Allen as a top-five fantasy quarterback for Week 14. We expect these two teams to put up some points and with a reasonable matchup, Allen should score plenty of fantasy points.