Randall Cobb

Week 8 at Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay Packers slot receiver Randall Cobb has just one game this year with more than 5.0 half-PPR fantasy points, and that came in a 21.4-point Week 4 explosion where Cobb saw six targets (a season-high) and caught two touchdowns. We should temper expectations for the veteran, but as the de facto top wideout on the roster with both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard out due to COVID protocols, Cobb is in a great spot to surprise in Week 8. Even with the workload potential, our models project Cobb as fantasy's WR43 this week due to the Arizona Cardinals ranking 13th-lowest in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to wide receivers.

Week 2 vs. Lions

The good with Randall Cobb's first game back in the green-and-gold: he caught a pass for 32 receiving yards. That deep work is not a skill-set that many likely believed the Green Bay Packers' 31-year-old slot receiver still possessed. The bad? He saw no targets until the game was more than 21 points out of hand and the backups had come into the game.

In Week 2, our models don't expect much to change, projecting Cobb for a fantasy score outside the top-80 wide receivers and 2.2 catches for 26.0 yards and 0.2 touchdowns. Perhaps the reliable veteran will get on the same page with his old buddy and quarterback down the road, but it's best to assume that won't be Week 2 in the Packers' fairly narrow target distribution.

Fantasy Upside
Any wide receiver paired with a star quarterback is enticing for fantasy purposes, and even more so when that receiver is personally requested by his quarterback. Trading to get Randall Cobb back was apparently a keystone component of getting disgruntled passer Aaron Rodgers back in the Packers’ fold for 2021, which indicates the veteran slot man could feature heavily in the offensive gameplan. With few talents to demand targets besides Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, Cobb has as good a shot as any to soak up some looks. When last on the team in 2018, Cobb earned the second-highest team target share (18.4%) in the nine games he was active, turning that into a 16-game pace of 67.5 receptions for 680.9 yards and 3.6 touchdowns.

Fantasy Downside
Since 2016, Cobb’s target rate (targets per route run) has stagnated in the 16-18% range, and his elite slot receiving skills have dropped precipitously. He’s still a reliable pass-catcher, but his yards-after-catch ability (6.1 YAC per reception in 2016; 4.4 in 2020) and raw elusiveness (18.6% missed tackle rate from 2011 to 2016; 10.7% from 2017 to 2020) have begun to erode. If Rodgers force-feeds him the ball, Cobb might end up a late-career Julian Edelman-type – a high floor in PPR formats, but essentially no upside whatsoever.

2021 Bottom Line
With the trade sending Cobb to Green Bay getting finalized on Thursday, July 29th, this situation is fluid, and draft ADP doesn’t reflect his current value well. Our models currently project the favored veteran as the WR67 in half-PPR formats. He’ll likely prove a decent value if available in the 15th round of your draft or later, as your fantasy WR6.