Cooper Kupp

Week 4 vs Cardinals

One way to cool down Cooper Kupp is to see him against a top secondary. There is a good chance Week 4 is not that week. The Cardinals rank 19th in aFPA against the wide receiver position and have allowed at least one touchdown to the position each week. Arizona has also allowed three receivers to collect at least three catches in each game. Even if Kupp were to cool off by his standards to open 2021, 100 yards receiving and/or a touchdown seems inevitable this week. He will once again be in the battle for the WR1 this week.

Week 2 vs Colts

Matthew Stafford knew the Bears had a weakness at the nickel corner position and exposed it with Cooper Kupp. A reprise is in the cards against a Colts secondary that allowed 100 yards and two touchdowns to Tyler Lockett Week 1. Kupp may not see a blown coverage like the one he experienced against Chicago but it is clear the duo of Stafford and Kupp can exploit an injured Colts secondary.

Fantasy Upside

The arrival of Matthew Stafford benefits every receiving option on the Rams including Cooper Kupp. Although Kupp’s Average Depth of Target (aDOT) may not increase because of his role as a slot receiver, he does stand to be Stafford’s best slot weapon since Golden Tate. In four seasons with Stafford, Tate topped 1,000 receiving yards three times. Kupp has reached the 1,000-yard mark once in four seasons. Kupp led the Rams in team target market share in 2020 despite playing one fewer game than Robert Woods. While touchdowns are not predictable, Kupp’s three last season were the fewest of his career and even one more is a boost to his fantasy upside.

Fantasy Downside

Kupp’s upside may be attached to former Rams QB Jared Goff. According to PFF’s Scott Barrett, Jared Goff targeted slot wide receivers 25.8% of the time, the third-most in the NFL (2009-18, min. 800 career pass attempts). Stafford was 18th at 18.9%. The Rams receiving corps added DeSean Jackson and TuTu Atwell, but the majority of the outside work appears to be set with Woods and Van Jefferson. Jefferson led the Rams in aDOT (in a smaller sample) and Woods is set for an increase in aDOT. Darrell Henderson is also a trustworthy running back in the passing game, a position that Stafford targeted the fourth-most in Barrett’s same study. At 28-years old, Kupp is at the beginning of his decline window that goes until age 33-34.

Kupp is an established receiver that has 1,000-yard upside, but it does not guarantee the same success Tate had with Stafford.

2021 Bottom Line

Kupp is firmly entrenched as a WR2 with potential upside to reach top 10-15 status. The arrival of Stafford does not increase his target share based on historical data on Stafford, but the upgrade to him benefits the offense, including Kupp.