Week 1 at New Orleans
Latavius Murray had 307 total touches, fourth in the NFL last year, and the Raiders signed stud offensive lineman Kelechi Osemele this offseason. Murray comes into Week 1 averaging 16.6 rush attempts, for 66.6 rushing yards and 0.375 rush TDs per game last season. The Raiders are road underdogs against the Saints, who are near the top of the league in RB aFPA. Murray received 84.0 percent of Oakland’s RB carries inside the 10-yard line in 2015. The Raiders are a team projected to be much better this year and with an improved defense, will be able to lean heavily on the power running game. Murray will be a low end RB1 against the Saints.
Fantasy Upside
Latavius Murray has fantasy upside because being any good might not be a requirement for fantasy success behind the Oakland improved offensive line this year. This line is arguably as good or better than the Dallas Cowboys, the class of the league in run blocking. The Raiders signed Pro Football Focus’s third-highest-graded run-blocking offensive lineman this offseason, Kelechi Osemele, who is a huge upgrade at left guard from JaMarcus Webb. The Raiders will be a much better team in 2016 and have one of the easiest schedules in the league. This favors the idea of an increase in volume for the running game under more frequent positive game scripts.
Fantasy Downside
The concern with Murray going forward has to be anchored by the fact that he is not only inefficient, but also isn’t consistent on a carry-to-carry basis. Rookie DeAndre Washington could cause Murray to lose quite a bit of receiving production, which is a significant blow to his value in fantasy. Washington has a proven track record of above average receiving ability, totaling 124 receptions in college, more than Murray has had in college and the NFL combined.
2016 Bottom Line
According to Joe Holka’s Rushing Expectation, Latavius Murray underperformed by 6.9% percent in the run game in regards to his Expected Success Rate. Murray is still the heavy favorite to lead this backfield in carries and it is quite possible that, barring injury, he gets off to a hot start behind against a soft schedule. Rookie DeAndre Washington could force himself into PPR relevance if he can show improvement in pass protection. The situation is great in Oakland for whatever back takes advantage of it.
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Week 17 at Kansas City
Expected to enjoy success against a shaky San Diego run defense during Week 16, Latavius Murray delivered, with 117 total yards and a touchdown. Generally speaking, Murray has followed a pattern in his first season as Oakland’s starter. He plays well against bad defenses but tends to struggle against good ones, such as Denver.
So we should expect him to have a rough day on the road against a Kansas City defense that has given up just seven rushing touchdowns, right? Actually, the opposite might be the case. Murray has enjoyed plenty of success against the Chiefs. Earlier this year he was able to break through the KC defense for 99 total yards and a score. And of course, there was the game in 2014 where Latavius scored two touchdowns as Oakland stunned the Chiefs on a Thursday night. With that track record and a firm role in Oakland’s backfield, you can consider Murray an RB1.
Week 16 vs San Diego
Latavius Murray did not light up the stat sheet in Week 15, rushing for 78 yards on 21 carries as Oakland lost 30-20 to Green Bay. However, if there was a silver lining, it was that Murray was the only Raider running back who received carries. Too often this year, the Oakland coaching staff has curiously shuffled Murray out of games for no particular reason.
If this new trend continues on Thursday, look for Latavius to have a nice night. San Diego’s run defense has given up 14 touchdowns, including one to Murray back in Week 7. The Chargers also yield 120.6 rushing yards per game. Quirky things can happen during Thursday games, but Murray’s coming out party took place on a Thursday last year against Kansas City. Murray looks poised to rise into RB1 territory and should be started.
Week 15 vs. Green Bay
Week 14 was a good time for the Raiders, as they upset the Broncos 15-12, but Latavius Murray struggled against Denver’s stifling defense. Murray was held to 27 yards on 16 carries and did not catch a pass.
The Packers, like Denver, are a good team, but unlike the Broncos, they do not have an elite run defense. Green Bay gives up 116.4 yards per game, although they have only surrendered 11 touchdowns. Nevertheless, they can be had on the ground, as Darren McFadden and Robert Turbin of Dallas compiled big numbers last Sunday at Lambeau Field. Murray will do his best to hit the comeback trail and will be among the RB2 crowd this weekend.
Latavius Murray was a bright spot for the Raiders in their 34-20 loss to Kansas City last Sunday. Murray accumulated 97 total yards and a touchdown in one of his better recent performances.
The good vibes Murray generated are likely to diminish in a hurry. Denver has the NFL’s best pass defense, but they also have a top five run defense, with opponents totaling an average of just 89.1 yards per game against the Broncos. Murray was held in check by Denver in Week 5, as he rushed for 39 yards on 13 carries while catching three passes for 18 yards. Murray is not an easy player to sit thanks to his prominent role in the Oakland offense, but ranks as a low-end RB2 this week. If you have someone else with more upside, you may want to give them the nod.
Week 13 at Kansas City
Last year, Latavius Murray had his coming out party in a home game against the Chiefs. Before being sidelined by a concussion, Murray had four carries for 112 yards and two touchdowns, including a dazzling 90-yard score. The spark Latavius provided influenced the Oakland brass to anoint him as the team’s unquestioned starter in 2015.
And Murray is generally playing well, but has been way more steady than spectacular. Murray, who averages 83.7 total yards per game, finished with 82 total yards in Oakland’s thrilling Week 12 victory over Tennessee. With Kansas City allowing less than 100 yards per game and having yielded just five touchdowns on the ground, the chances of Murray producing a huge day are slim. There is nothing wrong with using him as your RB2 or flex, but he will not carry your team to a victory.
Week 12 at Tennessee
Although Latavius Murray scored a touchdown in Oakland’s 18-13 loss to Detroit last weekend, Murray owners had more reasons to be concerned than happy. Murray rushed for just 28 yards, did not catch a pass, and was lucky to get the touchdown. The oddball Oakland coaches gave fullback Marcel Reece two carries and Reece failed to convert either chance before they went back to Murray, who was able to score. Throughout the season, the likes of Reece, Taiwan Jones, Roy Helu, and Jamize Olawale have siphoned work from Murray. This is a concern as none of those backs can match Latavius in talent and upside.
However, Murray still has the lead role in Oakland and is not dealing with a daunting matchup this week. The Titans have a so-so run defense. Opponents are rushing for 110.1 yards per game and have scored nine touchdowns against Tennessee. Murray has the capacity to return RB2 value provided the whims of the coaching staff are kept to a minimum. He remains a respectable, albeit slightly scary starter.
Week 11 at Detroit
A miserly Minnesota defense held Latavius Murray in check last weekend. Murray rushed for 48 yards on 12 carries and caught five passes for 29 yards. Latavius has largely been a solid fantasy back in his first full season as a starter, but he has rushed for just three touchdowns in nine games.
However, if there was ever a time for Murray to breakout in that department, it would be on Sunday in Detroit. The Lions have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns. They also give up 124.1 yards per game. The favorable matchup makes Murray an RB1 in most formats and an appealing daily league option.
Week 10 vs. Minnesota
Latavius Murray ran the ball well in Week 9, totaling 96 yards on 17 carries before he was knocked out of action due to a concussion. While fantasy coaches need to monitor his status between now and Sunday afternoon, the general consensus seems to be that he will play against the Vikings.
Minnesota’s defense has momentum after doing a respectable job against St. Louis rookie superstar Todd Gurley last Sunday. The Vikings held Gurley to 89 yards on 24 carries and did not allow a run longer than 16 yards. Nonetheless, Gurley still found the end zone and Minnesota’s run defense is a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. If Murray is able to play, he will be an RB2 with an RB1 ceiling.
