Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 1 Targets

Aug 01, 2014

Drafts are happening in these first few days of August, for better or worse, and if you’re planning on streaming the quarterback position, it’s finally time to decide who our early-season targets are going to be.

And what better way to start than to gauge which signal callers have the best Week 1 prospects?

Quarterback By Waiver Wire (QBBWW), a strategy that works wonders in standard-sized one-QB leagues, helped us exploit massive inefficiencies in 2013 as my streaming picks averaged 17.7 fantasy points per game and optimal plays posted 23.1 points per game.

You should never pass up a solid draft day value on a quarterback, however committed you are to the QBBWW approach. Nick Foles, who has a small but real chance to be fantasy’s top quarterback in 2014, is sometimes falling into the ninth round of drafts. I wouldn’t protest taking him there if you’re keen on investing in an every-week starter.

It’s when quarterbacks are taken in line with their actual value that swearing off quarterbacks until the very late rounds is most beneficial.

Remember: Quarterback replaceability is real in fantasy football, very much unlike real football. Thirty quarterbacks in 2013 had at least three startable (top-12) weeks, while 23 signal callers posted top-12 numbers at least four times. Just as eye opening: Only three quarterbacks had 10 or more startable weeks in 2013.

Below are Week 1 projections based on the fantasy points per attempt (FPAT) metric, which helps us better understand which quarterbacks are efficient – or inefficient – on a per-attempt basis. Defenses are also assigned FPAT according to how many fantasy points they give up every time a signal caller throws a pass.

Week 1 QBBWW targets

Carson Palmer (ARI) vs. San Diego Chargers
Palmer, who reportedly has a much better grasp of Bruce Arians’ aerial attack than he did a year ago, will benefit all season from his cast of offensive weapons. He posted a healthy 0.52 FPAT over the final seven weeks of 2013 and faces a San Diego defense that allowed a 0.48 FPAT last season. Palmer is a prime streaming target who can be had in the 13th round.