Who Are the Most Consistent Fantasy Football Quarterbacks?
What are we looking for in a starting-caliber fantasy quarterback? Obviously, it’s a good thing if he tends to throw (or run) for a lot of yardage and touchdowns, but it’s a bonus if he does so on a consistent basis. That way, we can start him with the confidence that he’s going to produce in any given week. (Streamers will want a QB who performs well on a predictable basis, posting reliably good numbers against bad defenses, but that's another article.)
In order to determine which quarterbacks are consistent, I calculated each passer’s Coefficient of Variation (CV), which is the ratio of the player’s week-to-week standard deviation (in fantasy points scored) to his PPG average.
CV = standard deviation / PPG
Standard deviation measures the amount of variation within a data set, and dividing it by the mean allows us to compare two players with very different levels of production (i.e. Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Tannehill).
CV can be expressed as a percentage, so the lower the number the more consistent the player.
Below is a list of the 34 veteran quarterbacks with a reasonably good chance to start Week 1. In addition to their PPG and CV, I’ve included each player’s games started over the past two seasons. I didn’t include any Week 17 games since teams often rest starters that week. Keep in mind that while all games started are included, it doesn’t mean that the game was successfully finished. I figured that in-game injuries should be included in this study as it’s a part of the overall consistency (and risk) of the quarterback.
| PLAYER | TEAM | 2-YR PPG | 2-YR GS | 2-YR CV | 2013 CV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | DEN | 22.9 | 30 | 35% | 34% |
| Drew Brees | NO | 21.4 | 30 | 36% | 38% |
| Andrew Luck | IND | 18.4 | 30 | 36% | 37% |
| Matthew Stafford | DET | 17.9 | 30 | 37% | 35% |
| Chad Henne | JAX | 11.6 | 17 | 38% | 37% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 17.6 | 27 | 38% | 40% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 17.8 | 30 | 39% | 32% |
| Tom Brady | NE | 19.0 | 30 | 39% | 47% |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 16.0 | 30 | 39% | 35% |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 17.8 | 30 | 40% | 43% |
| Colin Kaepernick | SF | 17.3 | 21 | 40% | 48% |
| Sam Bradford | STL | 15.5 | 22 | 41% | 34% |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 14.9 | 30 | 42% | 34% |
| Mike Glennon | TB | 12.6 | 12 | 42% | 42% |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | 20.6 | 23 | 43% | 51% |
| Cam Newton | CAR | 20.0 | 30 | 43% | 43% |
| Josh McCown | CHI | 23.1 | 5 | 43% | 43% |
| Robert Griffin III | WAS | 19.5 | 27 | 43% | 43% |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | 17.5 | 30 | 44% | 47% |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 14.1 | 30 | 45% | 32% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | TEN | 15.0 | 23 | 46% | 50% |
| Carson Palmer | ARI | 14.5 | 30 | 46% | 47% |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | 17.5 | 30 | 46% | 34% |
| Alex Smith | KC | 16.0 | 24 | 49% | 43% |
| Michael Vick | PHI | 17.0 | 15 | 49% | 70% |
| Jay Cutler | CHI | 14.0 | 24 | 50% | 46% |
| E.J. Manuel | BUF | 13.9 | 10 | 50% | 50% |
| Jake Locker | TEN | 13.9 | 17 | 57% | 67% |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 12.4 | 30 | 58% | 62% |
| Nick Foles | PHI | 20.4 | 15 | 58% | 44% |
| Matt Schaub | HOU | 13.6 | 22 | 62% | 72% |
| Matt Cassel | MIN | 12.3 | 13 | 67% | 58% |
| Brian Hoyer | CLE | 13.4 | 3 | 73% | 73% |
| Geno Smith | NYJ | 12.2 | 15 | 79% | 79% |
It’s interesting (though not all that surprising) that most of the league’s top fantasy quarterbacks are also the most consistent, led by Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford in the 35-37% range. (Note: Aaron Rodgers would have had a CV of 37% if not for his injury early in the game against the Bears in Week 9 last year, but those are the breaks -- pun sort of intended.)
Scanning the bottom of the list we find a few QBs ranked in the top 15 heading into the 2014 season. Nick Foles had several starts in 2012, but when only 2013 starts are considered, he had a much more respectable CV of 44%. I’m expecting big things from him this season.
Due to injury, Jay Cutler was in and out of the lineup for the Bears, but still posted a 46% CV when only 2013 was considered, indicating that he’s more consistent with HC Marc Trestman calling the shots. If he can stay healthy, I’d expect that CV to drop.
Russell Wilson has a career CV of 46%, but he posted a much better 34% in 2013, which was 5th-best among this group. Interestingly, Ryan Tannehill led the way last season with a CV of 32%, so even if he didn’t set the world on fire from a PPG standpoint, at least he was consistent. Matt Ryan (32%), Peyton Manning (34%) and Joe Flacco (34%) rounded out the top 5 most consistent in 2013.
As a fantasy owner, I want my team to be as consistent as possible, as it will typically result in fewer “wasted” points and more wins over the long haul. I won’t rank the position based on CV, but, like Strength of Schedule, it can be used as a tiebreaker between similarly-ranked players.
