DFS Running Back Strategy: FanDuel 2015 Year in Review

It's important to be price sensitive at running back in DFS. High-priced studs with reliable workloads might make you comfortable, but the key to the RB position is finding inexpensive RBs slated to get major volume.

In 2015, there were 257 instances when 4for4 had an RB projected for at least 18 touches. Of those 257, 106 cost $7,500 or more and 149 cost less than $7,500. The cheaper group averaged 13.8 FanDuel points per game -- just 0.3 less than the more expensive group.

I compiled data on the performance of RBs on FanDuel relative to their salary in 2015 to see what we takeaways we can apply to 2016.

I broke salaries down into $500 increments and looked at points scored per $1,000 of salary, percentage of time hitting cash game value, and percentage of time hitting tournament value. I also took a look at how each individual RB performed.

My sample consists of 611 RB games from 2015 (every game where a starting RB had a salary and was projected for 8.0 FanDuel points or more by 4for4). The RB data will be compared across salary ranges and across positions.

I'll lay out the data below and follow it up with key points, and then I'll sum up the actionable takeaways at the end of the article.

Note: The sample sizes for each salary tier can be found in the appendix at the end of the article.

Salary vs. Performance

• Usually, lineup construction comes down to whether you're going to pay up more at RB or WR. The data clearly shows that at salaries of $7,500 and above, RBs are inferior to WRs in terms of value. The trend reverses in the $6,000-$7,400 price range.

Cash Game Value

• There were 199 RBs who hit 2x value on FanDuel in 2015, or 11.7 per week.

Of the 199 RBs to hit 2x value:

• the average spread was -1.05, the average over/under was 45.2, and the average team total was 23.2.
• 55.8 percent were favorites, 52.8 percent were at home, and 40.0 percent had a team total of 24 or higher.
• the average amount of touches was 19.9, and 62.3 percent had 18 or more touches.
• 81.9 percent scored at least one TD. With no full-point PPR or yardage bonuses on FanDuel, TDs take on added importance.

Tournament Value

• RBs do not have as much upside as WRs at the higher end of the salary spectrum, namely at salaries of $7,500 and above.
• Only 20.6 percent of RBs in the winning Sunday Million lineups in 2015 were priced $7,500 or higher.
• There were 70 RBs who hit 3x value on FanDuel in 2015, or 4.1 per week.

Of the 70 RBs who hit 3x value,

• the average spread was -1.93 (almost double that of the RBs who hit 2x), the average over/under was 45.0, and the average team total was 23.5.
• 62.9 percent were favorites, 57.1 percent were at home, and 47.1 percent had a team total of 24 or higher.
• only one did not score at least one TD, and exactly half scored multiple TDs.
• the average amount of touches was 21.1, and 64.3 percent had 18 or more touches.

Individual Salary vs. Performance

• Most of the RBs were guys who did not start in Week 1, but rather came on later in the year to replace injured starters. As I've stressed throughout this article, these tend to be the most valuable type of RBs in DFS due to their cheap volume.
• Yes, the 0.5-PPR system makes pass-catching RBs who aren't involved as much in the running game less valuable on FanDuel than on a full-PPR site like DraftKings. Whereas on DraftKings, RBs like Theo Riddick, Charles Sims, and Chris Thompson were all top-18 in terms of DraftKings value, they all find themselves as middling or worse values on FanDuel.
• Preseason ADP has a large influence on Week 1 salaries. When an RB with a high preseason ADP underperforms, his salary may take longer than it would otherwise to come down to a reasonable level, which is why you see Eddie Lacy and C.J. Anderson near the bottom of the list.

Final Takeaways

It's extremely important to be a bargain hunter at RB on FanDuel so you can pay up for consistency at WR. Every week, there will be inexpensive options at RB slated to see enough volume to match the output of the most expensive options. And while RBs skew toward better performances with favorable Vegas odds, those odds aren't predictive enough to just blindly use Vegas odds to pick RBs without looking at projected workload, which is the best predictor of RB value.

Appendix

Related Articles

• DFS Running Back Strategy: DraftKings 2015 Year in Review
• DFS Quarterback Strategy: DraftKings 2015 Year in Review
• DFS Quarterback Strategy: FanDuel 2015 Year in Review
• DFS Playbook 2016: Running Back Strategy
• DFS Big Game Profiles: Running Backs
• ​The Definitive Guide to Stacking on FanDuel
• The Definitive Guide to Stacking on DraftKings
• Leveraging Weekly Player Consistency in NFL DFS
• Vegas Odds Will Give You an Edge in Your Fantasy Football Draft