DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 1

Sep 07, 2017

DFS can be especially overwhelming for those transitioning from traditional fantasy football formats since DFS gives every owner access to the entire player pool. The "start/sit" mentality often carries over for novice DFS players, leading to questions such as, "Who’s a good play this week?" This isn’t how anyone should be thinking about DFS.

Because this is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, every option should be explored each week. That’s what our weekly positional breakdowns hope to accomplish. Instead of offering our favorite players at each position, we will address every relevant play at each position. We will then explain how you should think about players in terms of tiers, their overall impact on lineup construction, and potential range of outcomes.

Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of each relevant player and how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk

Zach Ertz is the preferred play on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week, but he’s especially affordable on DK. Delanie Walker figures to match Ertz in ownership on FanDuel in a week that looks especially thin at the position. Going with the cheapest viable option at tight is usually the best option in cash games. However, with ownership slanted towards so few players at the position this week, a pivot play in GPPs might make sense at the most volatile position in fantasy football.

With Jordan Matthews no longer in Philadelphia, Zach Ertz is likely to dominate targets over the middle of the field for the Eagles—an area of the field that has been especially valuable in this passing game. Ertz is priced as the TE10 on DraftKings and the TE6 on FanDuel, making him a fantastic cash option on the full PPR site. The Eagles tight end accounted for just 16% of the red zone looks in Carson Wentz’s first season, so it may not be wise to get too carried away in GPPs, especially on FanDuel, where touchdowns drive value.
Only four tight ends saw a higher red zone target share than Delanie Walker last year, so it makes sense he will command relatively high ownership in a game where Tennessee is favored at home in an expected shootout. Beware that the arrival of Eric Decker not only cuts into Walker’s touchdown upside, but also lowers his floor. The two will compete for similar types of targets, with Decker usually lining up in the slot.

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