DFS Kicker and DST Analysis: Week 12

Nov 22, 2017

I'm Justin Bailey. Each week I’ll provide 4for4 DFS subscribers with an in-depth breakdown of the upside and downside of the defenses and kickers on the main slate. For those of you who don't know me, I've been analyzing DFS since 2014. My analysis in this space will include how to approach each of the chalk options, along with how options at the various salary tiers fit into overall roster construction. Ultimately, this piece will provide objective analysis to help guide you through the process of finding safe choices for cash games and high-leverage choices for GPPs.

This week's breakdown will look a little different with the Thanksgiving slate thrown into Week 12. It'll be broken down into the Thanksgiving and Main slates.

Defenses

Thanksgiving

There really isn’t a defense that stands out above all the others on the Thanksgiving slate. I’m approaching this slate by either paying up for Washington or paying down for the Chargers.

Washington ($5,000/$3,600) is the biggest favorite on the Thanksgiving slate, coming in as 7.5-point home favorites against a Giants offense implied for just 18.5 points. They may be missing Sterling Shepard and OG D.J. Fluker, which will certainly downgrade their offense even more. Washington's defense boasts a top-12 turnover rate, however, they have allowed opposing offenses to score at the third-highest rate this season.
The Los Angeles Chargers ($4,200/$2,800) are my favorite defense on the slate given their price and matchup, especially if LT Tyron Smith is out. Dak Prescott has been sacked 12 times over the last two weeks with Smith out of the lineup. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram—PFF’s No. 1 and No. 2 pass rushers among edge defenders—could wreak havoc on this offensive line. It’s a downside the Chargers are on the road and the Cowboys are implied for 24 points, but the Cowboys rank 27th in defensive aFPA. The Chargers’ elite pass rush should provide them with a decent floor.